Burning the Mideast oil: it fuels your car, and is the raw material for everything from CDs and jet fuel to shower curtains and the nylon in your socks. American life depends on a resource that's out of our control.

• Author: Vilbig, Peter

The United States may be the world's largest economy and greatest military power, but it depends,on a ceaseless flow of oil from other countries--about 9 million barrels arriving every day, enough to fill a hole the size of a football field 1,000 feet deep.

Even a small reduction in that supply can spike prices higher, sending tipples through the economy in the form of increased costs for food, fuel, and consumer goods. A major drop in imports, which account for more than half of U.S. oil consumption, could just about bring the nation's economy grinding to a halt.

That basic equation--less oil equals higher costs, and damage to the economy--keeps Pentagon planners and world economists awake at night. President Bush has threatened war over suspicions that Iraq has or is working on weapons of mass destruction-biological, chemical, or nuclear arms. But with the Middle East providing about 25 percent of the oil used in the United States, a war with Iraq runs the risk of literally setting on fire a region whose resources are essential to the U.S. and the world.

"If we're bombing Afghanistan, it doesn't affect the world economy," says Youssef Ibrahim, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. "If we bomb Iraq, it will affect the world economy and the U.S. economy."

If it comes to war, the Pentagon hopes to quickly seize Iraqi oil fields, to prevent Saddam Hussein from destroying them in an act of revenge--a real possibility. During the 1991 Gulf War following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, Saddam's troops set fire to Kuwait's oil fields, creating an economic and ecological disaster.

FEELING THE COST AT THE PUMP

Military planners also worry that Iraq could launch attacks on the oil fields and ports of Saudi Arabia, the top foreign supplier of oil to the U.S., or the shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf, used for transporting much of the Middle East's oil exports. At the gulf's southernmost point, the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway is just six miles wide. Sinking a few well-placed oil tankers there could effectively shut down shipments from the region.

U.S. military analysts believe that American forces can prevent those scenarios and keep the oil flowing. But already this year, U.S. consumers have had a foretaste of the effect that reduced oil imports can have on their pocketbooks.

The trouble began in December, when a strike at Venezuela's state-owned oil company led to a sudden drop in its oil shipments to the U.S., from 1.5 million barrels a day to 2 million barrels for the entire month of December. Venezuela is the fourth-largest source of foreign oil for the U.S., accounting for 14 percent of American imports.

The strike, coupled with fears about a war with Iraq, sent oil prices soaring 27 percent in little more than a month. Prices shot above $33 a barrel (normal prices range from...