MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick

Taking the long view on the economy--and life in general--has become a lot harder in the era of the COVID-19 virus pandemic. We swim in a turbulent sea of alarming and fast-moving data streams that have turned our lives upside down in an instant; shortening our planning horizons to the next day or the next hour it seems.

Economists and forecasters are trying to look further ahead, to visualize and project how the trajectory of the economy will change when the virus matures and the spread of infection slows enough to let ordinary commerce resume. Those projections are fraught with uncertainty, as so much remains unknown. Yet, responsible actions can only be based on...