MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEABCH.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick M.

A wise sage once told me early in my forecasting career that you should give an optimistic economic projection then list the things you're worried about. Like a lot of forecasters, we violated that advice last winter.

We predicted a recession for the first half of this year that has yet to arrive. Most of you are probably happy we were wrong, but the essence of what we said is still correct. Because that list of things to be worried about is getting longer.

This issue of the Montana Business Quarterly reminds us that even as uncertainties arise for the economy, we sail into the future with strengths and momentum. The state economy has diversified enormously from its christening as the Treasure State, but, as the articles here demonstrate, the traditional natural resource industries--mining, agriculture and timber--remain important assets.

The high performance of the Montana economy in the last few years has shown up in the state treasury, and the just-concluded...