Meeting the Y2K challenge.

• Author: Davis, Steve
• Position: Year 2000 computing problem

Understanding and knowledge coupled with concerted organizational effort are needed to meet and beat the challenges associated with the Y2K bug.

The Year 2000 (Y2K) problem is similar to an odometer problem. As information systems using two digit years "rollover" from 99 to 00, they will have difficulty recognizing the "00" as the year 2000 instead of 1900. In addition, many other dates (see Exhibit 1) may confuse computer systems creating the potential for a host of electronic system problems and supply-chain disruptions that are not limited to January 1, 2000.

State and local governments have little time remaining to deal with the host of issues that Y2K presents. This article outlines why Y2K is such a significant business challenge for government and suggests what can be done in the time remaining.

The Y2K Problem

First thought to be a problem limited to mainframe computer systems, the Y2K problem is now recognized as a threat to a myriad of computing devices including networks, desktops, building systems, and process controllers used in manufacturing and utilities. Because the Y2K problem can affect almost any electronic system, it may have far reaching operational implications and may threaten our supply chain and basic infrastructure services. Due to the complex, interconnected, and interdependent nature of society, local government needs to quickly come to understand the following aspects of the Y2K problem:

* It is not just a technology problem;

* It is not something that affects only mainframes;

* It is not something that information systems departments can handle alone;

* It is not something that does not need to be fixed until the year 2000;

* It is a bug that will potentially impact every electronic system;

* It is a risk to power, water, sewer, telecommunications, and other systems;

* It is something that must be fixed quickly in the face of dwindling resources; and

* It is a complex threat possibly presenting the greatest challenge ever to face government in modern times.

Embedded Systems

What makes this problem even worse is that there are more than 25 billion computer chips in use today. Y2K problems are expected in more than 10 percent of these electronic processors, causing multiple failures in all types of systems. Sporadic electrical transmission failures could occur along with failures in such areas as water and sewer, traffic controls, medical devices, fuel delivery systems, and telecommunications. As a result, organizations that are themselves Y2K compliant can still suffer due to their exposure to corrupt data, and to supply-chain, power, and telecommunication failures, and other problems that are beyond the control of the organization.

Y2K Has Already Arrived

Businesses and governments already have begun to experience failures of their forward-looking systems that are unable to process year 2000 dates. These systems, such as driver licenses and building permits have "event horizons" that may extend years into the future to track expiration dates. Other systems may have event horizons of a month to a year. These systems can be expected to fail prior to 2000.

Governments also may find problems early as they begin to prepare budgets for fiscal years that span January...