From the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush: Rethinking the Region.

• Author: DeAtkine, Norvell

Friedman views this region and U.S. involvement in it as entering a new phase. After 9/11 America focused on confronting jihadists, but more recently dealing with Iranian adventurism has become the major concern.

In this assessment, which both predicts new trends and reviews previous analyses, the author does something rather rare for Washington think tanks. He admits a number of mistaken predictions. STATFOR had believed that Hamas would take advantage of the instability in Egypt and the uncertainty of the Palestinian Authority's quest for statehood by creating a "massive crisis" with Israel reasoning that these actions would force both the regime in Egypt to end the blockade of Gaza and the Palestinian Authority to confront Israel or be marginalized.

Instead Hamas has remained passive and agreed to a deal with Israel to release Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. The STRATFOR analysts also miscalculated the increased Iranian-Arab tensions, which limited the room for Hamas to maneuver, and the weakness of the opposition forces in Egypt, which diminished the ability of Hamas to shape Egyptian politics.

STRATFOR now views the military junta's handling of the recent demonstrations in Egypt as evidence of its efficiency. A more apt description of their handling of the demonstrations might, however, emphasize the junta's use of the latent but powerful Muslim animus toward the Egyptian Christian Copts to curry favor with the Muslim majority.

Having reviewed STRATFOR's past predictions, Friedman moves on to make some new ones. These deal primarily with the enmity between Iran and Saudi Arabia and STRATFOR's earlier assessment that an acute crisis between Iran and The U.S. would arise at the end of the year. This crisis has been affected by, and in turn affects, U.S. involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the outcome of the rolling rebellion in Syria. In Iraq the departure of American troops will leave Iran in a commanding position, not controlling its neighbor but in a position to veto any policies averse to Iranian interests.

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