Many options--except for plastics?

• Author: Myers, R. Thomas
• Position: Hydrogen

Concerning peak oil production: Why do some people spend time trying to prove that the peak is far off? My feeling is that subconsciously this takes them off the hook; they do not need to act right away. And this allows them to label others by the pejorative term "catastrophists."

Contrariwise, the great amount of uncertainty is the frightening aspect of this problem. The worst scenario is just as likely as the best. The societies of industrialized nations are based on cheap transportation. If the peak is at hand and we do nothing, the lack of transportation will be one of the worst crises that humans have ever faced. Therefore the most important statement in the review on this subject was Robert Kaufmann's: "If the infrastructure for the alternative energy source is put in place before the peak arrives, the energy used to do so will have a relatively small impact on non-energy sectors. Conversely, if society waits until the peak, constructing the large infrastructure for the alternative fuel will siphon large amounts of energy from the non-energy sectors of the economy at the very time that the total supply and energy surplus from oil is shrinking. In short, society has to pay the costs for the transition. We can pay them now, while we have oil in the bank, or we can pay them later, when our oil bank account is emptying."

The only possible large-scale sources of energy are well known: coal, methane hydrates, solar, fission, and fusion. None of these is as convenient as petroleum, which is highly concentrated, cheap, and easy produce, transport, store, and use. All the others present serious difficulties. Fission is out of the question; it places an enormous burden on future generations. Fusion may be possible, but research must be increased immediately. The main problem may be construction of the enormous facilities for production of the electricity. Coal and methane hydrates are possible, but sequestering the carbon dioxide is absolutely necessary; global warming presents a great threat. Solar is a very large source of energy which gives very low pollution, but it is very diffuse. The superstructure will be enormous. Research and development of solar cells must be increased drastically, and steps toward distribution of trapped energy must be started right away. Electricity can be distributed via the power grid already in place. Some electricity can be stored in batteries, which can operate vehicles. Massive storage can...