Manufacturing: Shipping and Supply Chain Are Big Concerns.

• Author: Sonora, Robert
• Position: MONTANA ECONOMIC REPORT

Like most industries, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound effect, both positive and negative, on manufacturing. The 2021Q3 National Association of Manufacturers' survey listed as the top three primary business challenges as: increased material costs (86.4%); attracting and retaining workers (80.0%); and supply chain challenges (79.8%). When we compare this to the pre-pandemic survey in 2019Q3, only attracting and retaining workers (69.9%) made the top three. The other two were trade uncertainties (63.4%) and rising health and insurance costs (51.8%). By 2021 trade concerns, largely fueled by tariffs imposed in 2018 and 2019 had fallen dramatically with roughly one-quarter of respondents expressing concern.

In Montana, survey responses mirror the national experience. The annual Montana manufacturers survey, conducted by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research for the Montana Manufacturing Extension Center in the last quarter of 2020, found that the top three concerns for state business in 2020 were: shipping, supply chain problems and material costs (36.1%); the inability to find employees (24.4%); and COVID-19 (21.0%). An October report from Moody's Analytics states that the supply chain will likely get worse before improving. Some predict it will take from six months to one year for the supply chain to get through its backlog.

Despite the current systemic challenges to the economy, Montana's manufacturing sector has done comparatively well. While manufacturing employment has not yet reached its pre-pandemic trend, it has returned to 2020QJI levels (Figure la). Similarly, though manufacturing output has not yet returned to the pre-COVID trend, it is above the past year's level of production (Figure lb). Overall non-farm employment in Montana is still below pre-pandemic levels primarily due to losses in the hospitality industry.

Both durable and nondurable manufactured production have contributed to the recovery of the sector, however, it is Montana's nondurable which has seen the quickest turn-around.

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