Managing Threats on the High Seas: The Role of Naval Bases on Reducing Maritime Piracy

• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X211049462
• Published date: 01 January 2023
• Date: 01 January 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

1134644AFSXXX10.1177/0095327X20917183Armed Forces & SocietyLevy

research-article2022

Managing Threats on the

High Seas: The Role of Naval

Bases on Reducing Maritime

Piracy

Orlandrew E. Danzell

1

, Jacob A. Mauslein

2

, and

John D. Avelar

2

Abstract

Weak coastal states often lack an adequate, sustained naval presence to monitor and

police their territorial waters. Unpatrolled waters, both territorial and otherwise, may

provide pirates with substantial f‌inancial opportunities that go far beyond any single

country. Maritime piracy costs the global economy on average USD 24 billion per year.

This research explores the impact of naval bases on acts of piracy to determine if naval

presence can decrease the likelihood of piracy. To examine this important economic

and national security issue, our research employs a zero-inf‌lated negative binomial

regression model. We also rely upon a newly constructed time-series dataset for the

years 1992–2018. Our study shows that the presence of naval bases is essential in

helping maritime forces combat piracy. Policymakers searching for options to combat

piracy should f‌ind the results of this study especially useful in creating prescriptive

approaches that aid in solving offshore problems.

Keywords

piracy, naval bases, maritime security, force projection

1

School of Integrated Sciences, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA

2

Mercyhurst University, Erie, PA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Orlandrew E. Danzell, School of Integrated Sciences, James Madison University, ISAT-CS Building, MSC 4102,

701 Carrier Drive Room 322, Harrisonburg, VA 22807, USA.

Email: danzelox@jmu.edu

Armed Forces & Society

2023, Vol. 49(1) 179 –200

© The Author(s) 2021

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0095327X211049462

journals.sagepub.com/home/afs

180 Armed Forces & Society 49(1)

Modern maritime pirates are organized criminal gangs that operate around the world

and target both private and public vessels. They also have the potential to inf‌lict

signif‌icant tolls on human and economic security (Bendall, 2010;Robitaille, 2019).

Recent cases exemplify the brutality of these groups. According to the 2018 Stable

State of Maritime Piracy by One Earth Future (OEF), attacks off Guyana and Suriname

in 2018 were “extremely violent, with 16 reported deaths”(Joubert, 2019, p. 21). On

April 27, 2018, 15 f‌ishermen died, some of whom were thrown overboard with their

hands tied. The motivation for the attacks was the theft of engines, fuel, boats, and the

f‌ish catch (Joubert, 2019). While these may seem like isolated events, the number of

kidnappings of ships’crews in West Africa alone has increased 26% in the past year

(Budi, 2020).

While the Gulf of Guinea appears to be the new global hotspot for piracy, with 121

sailors murdered in 2019, there are growing concerns about its presence in the Strait of

Malacca and Latin American regions (Budi, 2020). Yearly data for 2018 show the

Caribbean region had a 20% increase in piracy over the previous year (Joubert, 2019;

Pichon & Pietsch, 2019). Piracy in the Gulfs of Guinea and Aden poses serious threats

to the global economy, due to their strategic importance for shipping and trade. These

gulfs are critical for oil shipments, and the Gulf of Aden accounts for 10% of global

trade (IMB, 2018). Considering that 70–90% of world trade (by value) is carried by sea,

totaling USD 25.3 trillion annually, piracy affecting the f‌low of goods can signif‌icantly

impact global economies (Bendall, 2010;Paine, 2018).

Historically, nations most affected by the losses from these persistent predatory

actions have resorted to establishing a naval presence in the affected regions. Effective

naval presence will necessarily come with the establishment of strategically located

naval bases that form a critical component of deterrence against maritime attacks on

commercial and private shipping. Naval bases provide essential logistical and oper-

ational support, as well as increase the range and mobility of maritime defense ca-

pabilities (Patch, 1939). An essential component to combat piracy is naval presence.

Naval bases play a vital role in national security by providing stations of logistical and

operational support, as well as increase the range and mobility of defense capabilities

(Patch, 1939). The Navy Off‌ice of Information argues that when a robust maritime

security program is in place, coastal navies, coast guards, and constabulary forces

provide effective means of countering piracy (Kuzmick, 2013). Similarly, a recent but

narrowly focused empirical study, found “the presence of American, British, and

French military bases deters piracy, [lowering] the number of attacks by 10%”(Desai &

Shambaugh, 2021, p. 8). Given the increasing diff‌iculty and operational cost of counter-

piracy activity, member states of naval security pacts, such as the NATOmission Ocean

Shield, have begun to question the feasibility of maintaining sustained naval presence

in affected regions (Christian & Stockbruegger, 2016;Ruzza, 2020).

Given the increasing technological sophistication of conventional and asymmetric

maritime threats, this research attempts to assess the effectiveness of naval bases as a

reliable maritime security asset. As a test of the eff‌icacy of the deterrence value of naval

bases, we examine whether the presence of naval bases provides statistically

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