MANAGING CULTURAL HERITAGE IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

• Author: Jigyasu, Rohit

WHY CONSIDER CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT FOR ANALYZING DISASTER RISKS? (1)

Cultural heritage is confronted with various kinds of disaster risks, especially in areas prone to natural hazards such as floods, fires, earthquakes, etc. These hazards have caused destruction of significant cultural properties in the past. These include damages due to the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, which damaged numerous heritage structures and traditional fishing settlements; Haiti and Christchurch earthquakes in 2010, that affected historic cathedrals and public buildings; floods in Pakistan (2010) and Thailand (2011), which caused extensive damage to archaeological sites; and Bush Fires in Greece in 2007, which posed a grave threat to the Parthenon.

The type of hazards connected with climate change are hydrological, such as heavy rainfall and flooding; (ii) meteorological, such as windstorms, cyclones, and El Nino; and climatological, for example drought, extreme hot dry winds, snow melting, cloudburst, and avalanches. (3)

Climate change is increasing the number of disasters and their devastating impacts (ibid). From 1988 to 2007, 76 percent of all disaster events were hydro-meteorological in nature. These accounted for 45 percent of the deaths and 79 percent of the economic losses caused by natural hazards (4) . The likelihood of increased weather extremes such as heavy downpours, heat waves, and strong hurricanes and cyclones therefore gives great concern that the number or scale of weather-related disasters will also increase. (56)

In the period between 2000 and 2007, of more than 230 million people affected annually by disasters, about 98 percent were due to climate-related hazards, predominantly floods and windstorms, followed by droughts. During the period 1987 to 2006, the number of reported disasters related to hydro-meteorological hazards (droughts, floods, tropical storms, wild fires) showed a significant increase: from an average of 195 per year in 1987-1998 to 365 per year in 2000-2006. (7)

Needless to say, developing countries are increasingly exposed to disasters, as the following figure (Figure 2.8, UNISDR 2011) on the trends in flood exposure in low income regions shows.

Climate change is also resulting in variability in temperature and precipitation. While in some regions, there may be more intense rainfall or typhoons, in other areas, these are likely to decrease. The changes in precipitation may be attributed to changes in the tracks of storms or typhoons triggered by global warming due to climate change. The impact of the changes in the number of wet days projected by climate models on the total annual precipitation and the intensity of wind driven rain on heritage also needs to be assessed. Moreover, increasingly warm ocean surface temperature may generate more and stronger hurricanes, as well as commensurate flooding in the aftermath. (8)

Many of these hazards may in fact result in other secondary hazards. For example, the rise of sea level can cause coastal inundation and severe drought may lead to an increase in forest fires. Drought may also be associated with El Nino as the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific may cause drier-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest. (9) Furthermore, El Nino may cause storm surge resulting in inundation in other parts of the Globe. (10) However, it is important to stress that the effect of climate change is not the same in all countries. For example, countries like Bangladesh and the Netherlands are much more impacted by sea-level rise than the Western coast of India. Also, small island states in the Pacific are bearing the brunt of the increased frequency of typhoons. Such natural disasters necessitate increased emphasis on disaster preparedness.

These hazards are adversely impacting cultural heritage sites. For example, a cloudburst in Leh, India in August 2010 caused flash floods due to unprecedented heavy rains which caused destruction of vernacular adobe heritage. Storms in western Europe earlier that year flooded many historic town centers, such as Paris, France; York, United Kingdom; and Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. Undoubtedly, climate change is increasing the number of disasters and their impacts on cultural heritage.

Climate change is not only exacerbating disaster risks due to catastrophic hazards, such as floods and cyclones, but also is posing risks due to slow and progressive factors. For example, increased temperature may thaw permafrost, causing destabilization of heritage buildings and infrastructure. Variability in precipitation and humidity may result in increased efflorescence by capillary action in walls, frescoes, wall paintings, mosaics, and statues or cause wet-frost that may damage porous materials. Moreover, increased wind or changes in its direction may increase abrasion and degradation of rock art and damage to archaeological sites and historic buildings.

INCREASING VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE: UNDERLYING CAUSES

Climate change is impacting the nature of hazards with respect to exposure and vulnerability. On one hand, climate change may increase or decrease the frequency of hazards. Hazards such as rainfall may be less frequent but may occur with greater intensity. Certain locations, such as coastal areas and mountains, are more exposed to the impacts of climate change.

Adding to these, vulnerability factors such as urbanization, poverty, and environmental degradation are compounding the risks to lives, properties, and the economy.

Climate change and urbanization are closely linked through complex interrelations. (11) These can be broadly explained through at least two feedback loops. Firstly through urban climates that are distinguished from those of less built-up areas by differences of air temperature, humidity wind speed and direction, and amount of precipitation. These differences are attributed in large part to the altering of the natural terrain through the construction of artificial structures and surfaces. For example, tall buildings, paved streets, and parking lots affect wind flow, precipitation run off, and localised energy balance. These conditions are further amplified due to variability in climatic conditions. Secondly, city residents are increasingly vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Poor and vulnerable communities in urban centres, which lack adequate access to infrastructure and services, stand to face worse shocks and stresses due to climate change. (12)

Urbanization is one of the key factors that is increasing the vulnerability and risks to people, properties, and economy. The world is passing through great urban upsurge. The number of people...