Make America Strategic Again.

• Author: Gioe, David V.

President Donald Trump's recent decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria (and a dramatic reduction from Afghanistan as well) may signal a 2019 that sees a contraction of the American empire, but it may equally enable and communicate a redistribution of the U.S. military to focus on European security. As political science professor Zachary Selden has argued, "rather than weakening, the U.S. military commitment to Europe has actually increased during Trump's presidency..." For instance, Polish president Andrzej Duda reportedly offered to name an American base in Poland after President Trump during his visit this past September. Given Poland's fraught history of being caught between hammer and anvil, it is understandable that Duda would seek hard and permanent American combat power on his territory. Duda stated he was "convinced that such a decision lies in the Polish interest and in the interest of the United States." This may make sound strategic sense from Warsaw, but is it in America's interest?

In a recent commentary for Defense One, scholars Michael Hunzeker and Alexander Lanoszka argue that this new frontier outpost on Russia's doorstep is a "good idea" and "would be worthwhile" from an American optic. Why? "A base there will deter Russian aggression and reassure our allies in Poland and the Baltic region." The authors give four reasons why forward-deployed troops would be in America's national interest. Specifically, such a move would deter Russia, save American lives in the event of a conflict, burnish Washington's commitment to NATO'S Russia-facing border, and signal that America helps those who help themselves. Indeed, given President Trump's oft-repeated frustration with free riders under American security umbrellas, that Duda has reportedly offered up billions in financial contributions is certainly a sweetener that would get American political attention.

Actually, "Fort Trump" is a terrible idea, and still would be for strategic and political reasons even if it were named "Fort Freedom." The "end of history" and America's "unipolar moment" saw a relentless eastward expansion of NATO, guided more by post-Cold War triumphalism than realism or strategy with respect to how all these new security partners might actually be defended at the coalface, "NATO'S ostensible purpose, collective defense, appears to have been barely in the minds of the sponsors of the organization's enlargement," noted Richard Betts in his book American Force.

Encouraging further American global military commitments absent a viable and enunciated grand strategy and unambiguous domestic popular support is not only misguided, it is dangerous. A pivot from the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR), specifically from Syria and Afghanistan, to the European Command (EUCOM) AOR, specifically Poland, would be a strategic pitfall. It would be wiser to return first to the principles of strategy and evaluate which deployments, if any, are truly vital to U.S. national security. To better understand why this is the case, we must consider the numerous ways America's strategic efforts are unfocused at home, in Europe and beyond.

First, talk of host government financial "contributions" cloud the issues at hand. U.S. service personnel are not mercenaries and the discussion of money obfuscates a more important discussion of U.S. national interest. Poland paying $2 billion might be a major investment for them, but that's a rounding error on the Pentagon's massive budget, $716 billion for fiscal year (FY) 2019. That figure includes $89 billion in the slush fund for the vaguely named "overseas contingency operations"--a euphemism for our seemingly endless wars in the Middle East and Central Asia. The focus on the sum, however large or small, is overly transactional. Nor is paying us to defend Poland how a society should employ its fighting men and women. If $2 billion, or even $20 billion, sounds impressive, it would be well to consider how much a war with Russia would cost (even a...