Louisville Forecast 2014.

• Author: Dufrene, Uric

The Louisville metro saw an overall deceleration of payrolls in 2013 compared to 2012. Even though payrolls slowed compared to the previous year, the region finally surpassed its pre-recession jobs peak (see Figure 1). As 2013 ended, payrolls began to accelerate once again, and 2014 payrolls will be comparable to the high payroll growth of 2012.

Labor Markets

Unemployment rates continued a downward trend in 2013. However, unemployment rates in Southern Indiana and the Louisville metro did increase slightly in the middle of the year due to the overall payroll growth deceleration (see Figure 2). Rates in both regions now hover above the national average, a reversal for Southern Indiana compared to 2012. As payroll growth resumes at a higher rate in 2014, regional unemployment rates should return to a consistent downward trend.

Sector Growth

Unlike 2012, most sectors in the Louisville metro showed slower growth in 2013. The professional and business services sector was one of the largest contributors to overall growth in 2012, but slowed during 2013. Leisure and hospitality, one of the leading sectors of 2012, also saw slower growth in 2013. Retail increased slightly from earlier in the year, but the growth rate was less than the overall job growth for the Louisville metro. The one sector that showed the most favorable change compared to the previous year was construction. During the first quarter and almost all of 2012, construction showed negative job growth. Even though housing showed an overall turnaround in 2012, construction employment did not reflect gains to housing. This has changed for 2013.

Manufacturing

Perhaps the sector that showed the biggest change from 2012 to 2013 was manufacturing (see Figure 3). Manufacturing was a significant contributor to above average job growth for the metro area during 2012. Likewise, it was a key reason overall job growth slowed in 2013. Growth in manufacturing continues to remain higher than overall job growth, but at rates considerably lower than they were at the beginning of 2013. National manufacturing indicators such as the ISM...