Who lost Gaza? Why nobody predicted the rise of Hamas.

• Author: Hammer, Joshua
• Position: Inside Hamas: The Untold Story of the Militant Islamic Movement - Book review

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Inside Hamas: The Untold Story of the Militant Islamic Movement by Zaki Chehab Nation Books, 244 pp.

Of all the dramatic twists and turns that have characterized the Middle East conflict over the last five decades, no event blindsided more people than the landslide victory of the radical Hamas movement in the Palestinian elections of January 2006. For months, close observers of the campaign had forecast an easy win for Fatah, the ruling party dominated by the late Yasir Arafat since the 1960s and led since Arafat's death by his moderate successor, Mahmoud Abbas. The only question, it seemed, was the size of the victory. Khalil Shikaki, a respected Palestinian pollster, forecast that Fatah would secure between 47 and 50 percent of the votes, while the Israeli army's chief of staff, Lieutenant General Dan Halutz, told the Knesset that Fatah would squeak by with "a small majority." Instead, Hamas humiliated Fatah by capturing seventy-four of the 132 seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council; Fatah took just forty-five. "Why was it that nobody saw it coming?" asked Condoleezza Rice, after summoning her staff to an emergency meeting the next Saturday morning at the State Department in Washington.

The answer, as Zaki Chehab makes clear in his richly detailed investigation into the rise of the group, Inside Hamas: The Untold Story of the Militant Islamic Movement, was a combination of factors that have greased Hamas's rise as the most potent force in Palestinian politics: fierce discipline, a powerful grassroots organization, a reputation for incorruptibility, and a stealth approach to campaigning that caused almost everyone to underestimate the group. Moreover, by downplaying its Islamic fundamentalist beliefs and its dark history of suicide bombings--its rallying cry during the campaign translated as "For Change and Reform!"--Hamas was able to win the votes of many moderate, secular Palestinians fed up with the failures of the Fatah-led government.

But serving as a radical voice of opposition and wielding power are two very different things, as the past year and a half have illustrated, often tragically. While refusing to renounce the key component of its charter--the destruction of Israel--Hamas has faced international isolation, fought a vicious civil war with Fatah that cleaved the Palestinian Authority in two, and watched the area under its control, Gaza, sink into deeper destitution and despair. The question that...