Losing the peace?

• Author: Kemp, Geoffrey
• Position: Middle East policy

AT THE TIME of triumph a year ago when Saddam Hussein's statue was toppled and the Iraqi army vanished, the most ardent supporters of George W. Bush's war argued that Iraq was merely the second stage, following the Afghani operation, of a grand campaign to rid the Greater Middle East of corrupt regimes. It was said, "Men go to Baghdad, but real men go to Damascus and Tehran." Another phrase was popular: "The road to Jerusalem lies through Baghdad", implying that the victory in Iraq would make an Arab-Israeli settlement easier. A year later, the most powerful military establishment in history finds itself bogged down fighting a vicious insurgency in a country that has shown little appreciation for our loss of blood and treasure. At home, many of the original cheerleaders for the war are now blaming various individuals and agencies of the Bush Administration for the many mistakes that have been made. Their internecine quarrels have intensified in the wake of the disasters of April and May 2004.

To be fair, there is good news out of Iraq that does not make the headlines everyday. A vigorous free press, an open and intense political discourse, and a restored oil industry provide evidence that the Ba'athi totalitarian era is over and that, whatever happens after July 1, 2004 when Iraqi sovereignty is restored, the old regime is gone and a more pluralistic society will evolve. Whether it will be united, secular, humane and supportive of women and minority rights remains unclear. But even if Iraq has to undergo further civil strife, with serious fighting among the various groups, it is difficult to imagine a situation that could be any worse for the majority of Iraqis than it was under Saddam.

However, for the Bush Administration, things can indeed get much worse in the Middle East. A march on Damascus has been stalled. Instead, economic sanctions have belatedly been imposed on Syria, but they are expected to have little impact since U.S.-Syria economic ties are minimal. As for Tehran, the conservative mullahs, though hated by most Iranians, are stronger than ever and are well on their way to achieving a nuclear weapons capability. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has likened the United States in Iraq to a "wounded beast." Dan has a growing presence in Iraq and, should it wish, it could cause far more trouble for the Coalition as it prepares to hand over sovereignty to Iraqis. On a related front, Dan has used its leverage in Iraq to...