Trade: a look to the future; global warming may open up new trade routes in the arctic.

• Author: Schmitz, Richard F.

The question of whether global warming is an event triggered by freeway-driving SUVs or whether it's merely evidence of evolving global weather cycles is a long way from being conclusively answered.

Yet while climate scientists work weather models on supercomputers, evidence of climate change can be found here in Alaska. Those with an eye on Alaska's place in the world's economy aren't obsessed with the "whys" of climate change. Rather they're looking at the "wheres" and "hows" of the worldwide phenomenon.

Increasingly, Alaska may find potential trade and economic benefits from global climate change. According to Mead Treadwell of the Northern Forum, sea routes across the top of Russia will soon become practical alternatives to shipping freight from the Pacific Rim to Europe.

In addition, receding sea ice is slowly showing hints of along-sought-for Northwest Passage, through the archipelago of Canada's far north. Alaska stands at the crossroad of these new trade routes.

However before cruise ships or freighters ply these routes regularly, strong political obstacles must be overcome, Treadwell explained.

PROMOTING TRADE

In Juneau, trade and economic development have become the focus of anew administration as well as the 23rd Alaska Legislature. Sen. John Cowdery, chair of the World Trade and State-Federal Relations Committee, says regaining lost coal export contracts with Korea is a trade priority.

In his State of the State address, Gay. Frank Murkowski highlighted resource development as key to growing Alaska's economy. Successful worldwide marketing of Alaska's resources will be a key step to the process. Presently, Alaska trade centers on petroleum products, timber, mining and seafood. That will continue.

And while a natural gas pipeline remains just over the horizon, Treadwell insists "we can't ignore natural gas. We have 2 billion cubic feet of reserves. We have to continue to take a look at LNG (liquefied natural gas) and LPG (liquefied propane gas) for the California and Asian markets."

Treadwell suggests these products would be transported using excess capacity in the trans-Alaska oil pipeline.

Alaska can't ignore trade in value-added products, Treadwell continued, citing a Ketchikan veneer plant as one example. "Alaska can do a lot to boost trade by improving the quality of seafood products, salmon in particular, and with better plays in the processed salmon market," he added.

In 2000, the Northern Forum and the Arctic Council...