Is locking 'em up the answer? For violent criminals probably - for the rest, it's not so clear.

• Author: Fischer, Karin

For violent criminals probably--for the rest, it's not so clear

It's a politician's dream come true. For the second year in a row, the Clinton administration has had the pleasure of announcing that, after a decade-long rise in crime, America's streets are actually becoming safer. In November, the Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), an annual poll of 50,000 U.S. households, showed that during the first six months of last year the U.S. saw a 10 percent drop in violent crime from the same period in 1996. just one week later, the FBI announced that its Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR), comprising data from 17,000 police departments nationwide, showed a 5 percent decrease in violent crime and a 4 percent drop in property crime from the previous year. A cause for celebration on their own merits, these numbers are even more impressive considering that in '96, both of the surveys had reported record-setting declines in both violent and property crime. Of particular note, the UCR indicated that violent crime in 1996 fell 7 percent--the largest decrease in 35 years.

The change has been most dramatic in urban areas, Boston being among the most notable. Last year, homicides in Boston dropped to a 30-year low, and robberies to a 26-year low. Even more significantly, homicides committed by young people decreased by more than 65 percent while murders and assaults involving guns all but disappeared.

But city residents aren't the only ones seeing the benefits. "The drop has been very sharp ... and very broad over the last few years," says Lawrence A. Greenfeld, deputy director of the justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics. "It affects whites and blacks, young and old, cities and rural areas" All told, the American crime rate is now equal to that of the Netherlands, Australia, or Canada.

The Clinton administration has been understandably upbeat about the recent trend, patting itself on the back for its crime-fighting achievements. Attorney General Janet Reno remarked: "Crime has been falling for several years because policy makers, law enforcement, and ordinary Americans are coming together to do the right thing."

Of course, most notable among the steps being taken to combat crime may be the dramatic increase in incarcerations. Today, more Americans than ever before are behind bars. Over the past two decades, as crime rates have fluctuated, incarceration rates have risen steadily--doubling over the last 10 years...