“Like aspirin for arthritis”: A qualitative study of conditional cyber‐deterrence associated with police crackdowns on the dark web

• Published date: 01 November 2023
• Author: David Décary‐Hétu,Camille Faubert,Julien Chopin,Aili Malm,Jerry Ratcliffe,Benoît Dupont
• Date: 01 November 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12642

DOI: ./- .

SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

CYBERCRIME AND CYBERSECURITY

“Like aspirin for arthritis”: A qualitative study

of conditional cyber-deterrence associated

with police crackdowns on the dark web

David Décary-Hétu1Camille Faubert2Julien Chopin3

Aili Malm4Jerry Ratcliffe5Benoît Dupont6

School of Criminology, Université de

Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada

École nationale de police du Québec,

Nicolet, Quebec, Canada

School of Criminology, Université de

Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada

School of Criminology, Criminal Justice

and Emergency Management, California

State University – Long Beach, Long

Beach, California, USA

Department of Criminal Justice, Temple

University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania,

USA

School of Criminology, Université de

Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada

Correspondence

David Décary-Hétu, School of

Criminology, Université de Montréal,

Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Email:

david.decary-hetu@umontreal.ca

“Like aspirin for arthritis” in the article

title is quoted from Sherman et al. (:

).

Funding information

PMI Impact

Abstract

Research summary: Crackdowns arelaw enforcement

strategies based on the principles of deterrence theory,

which stipulates that offenders are rational actors who

will refrain from crime if perceived risks are higher

than perceived benefits. Studies have shown that the

effects of police street drug crackdowns are mostly short

termed and followed by considerable displacement. In

the early s, an important part of illicit drug trades

moved online to cryptomarkets, and law enforcement

agencies have responded by engaging in online drug

crackdowns. In this study, we focus on the perceptions

of dark web users in order to determine, from a qual-

itative “data-driven” perspective, whether police online

crackdowns mayhave a cyber-deterrent effect by analyz-

ing  forum posts. Our results show that these events

trigger psychological and practical consequences that

participants claim to havea conditional, although minor,

deterrent effect. In the majority of cases, dark web users

claimed to engage in several forms of spatial and tactical

displacement.

Policy implications: Our study suggests that police

crackdowns on the dark web have limited, short-term

effectiveness in curbing illicit activities. It proposes

that innovative policing approaches such as problem-

Criminology & Public Policy. ;:–.©  American Society of Criminology.639wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/capp

640 FAUBE RT  .

oriented policing and “pulling levers/focused deter-

rence” strategies, which involve identifying key actors

and engaging with them, be potentially extended to the

dark web. While this approach is promising, it empha-

sizes the need for further research to assess its efficacy

in the online realm, as it is a largely uncharted territory

for law enforcement.

KEYWORDS

conditional effect, cryptomarkets, deterrence theory,

displacement, drugs, police crackdown

Cryptomarkets are “online marketplace platforms bringing together multiple vendorsand listing

mostly illegal and illicit goods and services for sale” (Aldridge & Décary-Hétu, : ). These

merchant websites, similar in their design and user experience to Amazon Marketplace or eBay,

make it possible to mail ordera wide array of goods such as illicit drugs, firearms, counterfeit credit

cards, currencies, and passports; cryptomarkets also make available hacking and fraud services

(Hiramoto & Tsuchiya, ).Cryptomarkets first appeared in  and immediately attracted the

attention of law enforcement agencies due to the anonymity and security they afforded to their

participants. This attention translated to the first cryptomarket seizure by the Federal Bureau of

Investigation in October  (Aldridge & Décary-Hétu, ), followed by several othersin the

years since (Bhaskar et al., ; Department of Justice, ; Europol, ).

Cryptomarket seizures mirror police crackdownsand are designed around deterrence (Décary-

Hétu and Giommoni, ). While many studies have shown that police crackdowns are rarely

effective in preventing offline/street drug crimes in the long term (Cohen et al., ; Cooper

et al., ;Eck,; Fader, ;Lawtonetal.,; Mazerolle et al., ; Sherman et al.,

), few studies have investigated this question for online drug sales. The aim of this study is to

understand the attitudes and beliefs of cryptomarket participants regarding the impacts of police

crackdowns on cryptomarkets and other platforms that facilitate their activities. Specifically,

this study focuses on a qualitative analysis of online forums that discuss police crackdowns on

cryptomarkets and other platforms that facilitate their activities following two police operations

(i.e., Operation East River and OperationDeepDotWeb). Findings from this study contribute to the

debate on the applicability of criminological theories to the online environment, as well as on the

role of law enforcement agencies’ operations in countering online drug trafficking. We propose

a model that predicts deterrence based on the virtuality of environments and the opportunistic

nature of crimes.

1DETERRENCE THEORY: A RATIONAL CHOICE PERSPECTIVE

According to Akers (), deterrence theory and the rational choice perspective constitute the

core of classical criminological doctrine. These approaches, which are interrelated, are both

derived from an economic analysis of crime (see Pratt et al., ;Wardetal.,) and state that

individuals’ actions are based on rational decisions following a cost–benefit analysis. The rational