Life in a Plan B economy.

• Author: Brown, Lester R.
• Position: ECONOMIC OBSERVER

BUILDING A NEW ECONOMY is paramount, one that can sustain economic progress and involves phasing out old industries, restructuring existing ones, and creating new ones. This new economy will be powered by renewable sources of energy, have a more diverse transport system--relying more on rail, buses, and bicycles, and less on cars--and will recycle everything. For instance, coal use will be phased out, replaced by efficiency gains in many countries, but also by natural gas, as in the United Kingdom, and by wind power, as in Denmark and Germany.

The world automobile industry will face restructuring as it shifts from the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine to the gas-electric hybrid, the diesel-electric hybrid, plug-in hybrids, or high-efficiency diesel. This will require a retooling of engine plants and the retraining of automotive engineers and mechanics.

The new economy will bring with it major new industries, ones that either do not yet exist or are just beginning. Wind electricity generation is one, incorporating three subsidiary industries: turbine manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. Now in its embryonic stage, this promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy. Millions of turbines soon will be converting wind into inexpensive electricity, becoming part of the landscape, generating income and jobs in rural communities throughout the world.

As wind power emerges as a mainstream low-cost source of electricity, it will spawn another industry--hydrogen production. Once wind turbines are in wide use, there will be a large, unused capacity during the night when electricity use drops. With this essentially free electricity, turbine owners can turn on the hydrogen generators, converting the wind power into hydrogen. This then can be used to run power plants now fueled with natural gas. The wind turbine will replace the coal mine, oil well, and gas field.

Among the many changes in the world food economy will be the continuing shift to fish farming. Aquaculture, the fastest growing subsector of the world food economy, has expanded at nine percent a year since 1990. The farming of fish, particularly omnivorous species such as carp, catfish, and tilapia, is likely to continue expanding rapidly simply because these fish convert grain into animal protein so efficiently. With this aquacultural growth comes the need for a rapidly expanding aquafeed industry, one where feeds are formulated by fish nutritionists, much as...