Libya after Gadhafi: transitioning from rebellion to rule.

• Author: DeAtkine, Norvell B

LIBYA AFTER GADHAFI: TRANSITIONING FROM REBELLION TO RULE

By Scott Stewart, STRATFOR

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110824-libya-after-gadhafi-transitioning-rebellion-rule

As the end of the Gadhafi regime and a new dawn for the Libyan people appeared, the author nevertheless catalogues the reasons why it is far too early to forecast a rosy future for Libya.

Supporting this skepticism about a positive outcome, Scott Stewart carefully surveys the massive ethnic, tribal, and linguistic divisions within Libyan society and its vulnerability to outside influence. In terms of history, the two halves of Libya, centered around Tripoli in the East and Benghazi on the West, are cultural entities shaped by centuries of contrasting historical narratives. Even their dialects are quite different, with Westerners speaking Magrebi Arabic and Easterners an Egyptian dialect. Added to the mix are 140 tribes and a number of small but significant non-Arab minorities.

Recent Middle Eastern as well and Latin American cases illustrate the difficulties of putting together a legitimate government that all can accept after the passage of the heady elation that follows a successful rebellion. Somalia, Afghanistan, and to an extent Iraq...