Lewis and Clark County outlook: something old, something new.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick M.
• Position: Statistical data

The history of gold mining is all around Helena, from its buildings to its street names and its famous families. But this very old piece of the economy was in the news in 2013, in an unfortunate way, as sinking gold prices claimed a casualty with the closure of the Drumlummon mine in Marysville at the mid-point of the year. Once thought to be a candidate for expansion, the shutdown brought at least a temporary end to a boom and bust activity that dates back more than 140 years.

As an economic event, however, the mine's closure was more than offset by surprisingly strong growth in what--in relative terms at least--might be called the "new" Helena economy. That is the vibrant health care, government, and government-related services industries.

The story of the Lewis and Clark economy over the years since the recession began can be divided into three pieces, as shown in Figure 3. During the recession and early in the recovery, the economy--as measured by inflation-corrected wages and salaries--continued to grow even as the state's economy declined, thanks largely to money from federal stimulus projects arriving in the state capital. This growth turned to stagnation in 2009-10 as the state government pay freeze and other austerity actions took hold.

Growth in wages and salaries has been rekindled in the past two years, thanks to road building and commercial construction, services growth, and an uptick in government payrolls. The last development has come about due to a reconcentration of state government activity in the capital rather than growth in government itself.

Our forecast continues to see strong headwinds to government growth, particularly at the federal level. Data will also soon reflect the impact of the Drumlummon closure. We expect growth in...