Levantine Labyrinths.

• Author: Sullivan, Antony T.
• Position: Reporter-at-Large - LEBANON IS caught in a vortex of sectarian storms, fomented largely by outside players (within and beyond the region - Viewpoint essay

LEBANON IS caught in a vortex of sectarian storms, fomented largely by outside players (within and beyond the region) that are now, in turn, impacted by the country's upheaval. The question remains: What will this maelstrom mean for the greater Middle East in the coming years? As one Lebanese observer put it, "Lebanon has entered the tunnel of political uncertainty for years to come." It would hardly be surprising if the contest within and for Lebanon ends as badly as it potentially could for all involved. But the prospect of those dire possibilities in the Levant could also create the impetus for resolution--if a more adaptive Washington recognizes and acts upon it. Barring such realism from Washington and others, the panoply of consequences includes: civil war in Lebanon and even violent infighting within the groups themselves; the strengthening of Al-Qaeda close to Israel's border; another Israeli invasion of Lebanon (in Hizballah's view) and, of course, a general escalation of foreign involvement in Lebanon, particularly by Iran.

According to numerous reports, since the end of the Israeli-Hizballah war of July and August 2006, thousands of Sunni Muslims have converted to Shi'i Islam out of adulation for Hizballah head Hassan Nasrallah and his resistance to Israel's invasion. However, there is also an economic factor at play, since Iran subsidizes the $200 doled out to each poor and converted Syrian-Sunni household across the border. The Syrian-Alawite regime appears to tolerate this financially subsidized conversion.

The primary challenge for Hizballah may now be resisting the temptation to capitalize on its popularity by attempting to cross bridges that simply should not be crossed. Such a temptation may be hard for Hizballah to resist, driven as it is by a fervent sense of religious righteousness.

Still, Hizballah's strategy in Lebanon is sophisticated and well-organized. Financially, Hizballah is said to pay fulltime demonstrators in Beirut's central Martyr's Square $100 daily, in addition to offering them meals and soft drinks. This food comes from international and Arab aid given to Lebanon during last summer's war, which has been "taken over" by Hizballah. Part-time demonstrators receive $37 a day. That is a very good value for Lebanese who otherwise struggle to make ends meet.

Veiled women who participate in Hizballah demonstrations receive $15 per demonstration, while non-veiled women get $37. The reason for this discrepancy, Lebanese report, is that Hizballah wishes to remind all Lebanese that the protestors represent sectors of the Christian community, as well as the overwhelming majority of Lebanese Shi'a. Lebanese observers also state that students at Beirut's Lebanese University who have been participating in sit-ins have received reassurances from the university that they will suffer no reprisals. Indeed, some may even be getting exam questions in advance. Hizballah has become its own industry in Lebanon, economically provident as well as militarily feared and respected.

Recently, reports have been circulating in Beirut that Hizballah has opened two camps to train suicide bombers in the Beka Valley, which now boast over 120 graduates. With these recent recruits, Hizballah is now said to have an army of over 1,000 suicide bombers, most trained by officers from the Iranian "Jerusalem forces." Among these potential bombers, interestingly, are a number of females. Given the fact that it has now become...