Let’s Get Ready to Rumble: Assault in Space and Time

• Date: 01 June 2021
• Published date: 01 June 2021
• Author: Josh Hill,Justin Kurland
• DOI: 10.1177/0734016821997541
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble:

Assault in Space and Time

Justin Kurland

1

and Josh Hill

2

Abstract

Building on the growing literature of the spatial examination of criminality, this study examines the

stability of crime related to mass gathering events over time. Specifically, we examine the impacts of

baseball games on assault patterns in the Bronx and Queens, New York, using a nonparametric

permutation approach to examine the spatial distribution of point patterns at the neighborhood

level over multiple seasons. Findings demonstrate that Mets and Yankees game days have significant

impact on the number of assaults when compared to a sample of similar non–game days providing

further support for environmental criminological theories. Implications for practitioner use of the

tool as well as its use as a method for researchers who seek to compare crime event patterns across

several temporal bandwidths are discussed.

Keywords

violence, assault, spatial analysis, sports, research methods

Sporting events with high spectator attendance have long been associated with crime and disorder

(Elias & Dunning, 1971). These events, particularly those associated with stadia, have been con-

sistently shown to influence the spatial and temporal distribution of crime and related behavior

patterns (for a review, see Kurland, 2014). Virtually no studies, however, have examined the spatial

(in)stability of these patterns across different “seasons” of sport. Given the impact of sporting and

entertainment events on crime and disorder and the requirements of law enforcement agencies’

support for them in the form of traffic control and increased patrols, understanding the stability of

crime related to these events is essential. More specifically, understanding whether

neighborhood-level patterns of crime and disorder remain stable on days when such facilities are

used across seasons can provide guidance regarding where policing and other efforts can best be

directed to reduce crime.

1

National Center for Spectator Sports Safety and Security, The University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, USA

2

Institute for Advanced Analytics and Security, School of Criminal Justice, Forensic Sciences, and Security, The University

of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, USA

Corresponding Author:

Josh Hill, Institute for Advanced Analytics and Security, School of Criminal Justice, Forensic Sciences, and Security,

The University of Southern Mississippi, 118 College Dr., Box #5172, Hattiesburg, MS 39401, USA.

Email: joshua.b.hill@usm.edu

Criminal Justice Review

2021, Vol. 46(2) 212-235

ª2021 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0734016821997541

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjr

Despite the wealth of open-source geographic information systems (GIS) and related software

such as Quantum GIS, CrimeStat, GeoDa, and even statistical programming languages such as R, an

open-source statistical tool that compares spatial point patterns across data sets for different

temporal periods to establish if, and where, differences exist remains elusive. To be clear, this is

not a critique of the abovementioned software; indeed, they provide a rich source of tools that enable

everything from the generation of simple choropleth maps to complex spatial econometric or

Bayesian approaches for modeling point patterns. Instead, it is meant to highlight the need for a

simple technique that can uncover sta tistically significant differen ces that might exist between

contrasting point patterns—and be useful to police analysts, law enforcement officers, and other

decision makers who may have less experience with more advanced software and statistical

techniques.

The following sections examine the ecological theories that provide a framework for understand-

ing crime patterns in time and space. The extant literature on sports, violence, and crime is also

discussed, followed by a narrower discussion on the unique opportunity that sports and entertain-

ment events provide for conducting “natural experiments” that enable the comparison of spatial

patterns over time. This is followed by a description and extension of the anal ytical technique

originally developed by Kurland (2014), which provides a simple method for the statistical com-

parison of such patterns. A case study is then undertaken which makes use of Neighborhood

Tabulation Units in two New York City boroughs, the Bronx and Queens, where two Major League

Baseball (MLB) teams, the New York Yankees and New York Mets, play to analyze the stability of

assault patterns across 10 seasons (2006–2015). Finally, the implications for criminological theory

and practice are discussed.

Environmental Criminology and Crime Patterns

Theories of environmental criminology focus on criminal events and their immediate environment

(Wortley & Townsley, 2017). The suite of theories and techniques that make up environmental

criminology revolves around understanding the situation, the role that the immediate environment

plays in crime incidence, and consequently how these factors can be leveraged to effectively

investigate, control, and prevent crime—including that related to sporting and entertainment events.

Of particular prominence within environmental criminology are the routine activity approach and

crime pattern theory.

The routine activity approach is premised on the idea that there are “motivated (or likely)

offenders” who are looking for, or would notice, opportunities to commit crime. These opportunities

are conditioned upon the existence of a suitable target to take advantage of and a lack of capable

guardianship, intimate handler, or place manager who would otherwise prevent the crime from

taking place (Eck & Weisburd, 1995; Felson & Cohen, 1980). The confluence of these elements

in time and space is a function of various actors’ “routine activities” and is responsible for generating

the crime patterns that emerge. Conversely, the lack of any one of these elements is enough to

prevent the successful completion of a crime (Cohen & Felson, 1979).

Crime pattern theory (P. J. Brantingham & Bra ntingham, 1981, 1984), like routine activity ,

focuses on crime patterns but is concerned specifically with spatial patterns of crime and how the

necessary elements of crime converge in time and space. The theory posits that offenders, like

others, are not tied exclusively to one particular area but are mobile, repeatedly traveling to and

from various locations such as work, school, home, or sports and entertainment venues. Thus, human

mobility is nonrandom and heavily patterned. This regularity of movement leads people to develop

familiar activity spaces and, from an offender perspective, areas where they are more likely to be

aware of opportunities to successfully offend. The structure of this activity space is understood as a

collection of (1) nodes, those places where activity occurs; (2) paths, those routes commonly utilized

Kurland and Hill 213