Legacies of Stalin or Putin? Public Opinion and Historical Memory in Ukraine

• Author: Vitali Shkliarov,Vera Mironova,Sam Whitt
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129211041633
• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Date: 01 December 2022

Article

PoliticalResearchQuarterly

2022,Vol.75(4)966–981

©TheAuthor(s)2021

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DOI:10.1177/10659129211041633

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LegaciesofStalinorPutin?PublicOpinion

andHistoricalMemoryinUkraine

VitaliShkliarov

1

,VeraMironova

1

,andSamWhitt

2



Abstract

Ourresearchconsiderstherelationshipbetweenhistoricalmemoryandpoliticalevaluationsofthepastandpresent.We

firstexaminehowhistoricalreflectionontheSovietUnionunderStalinisinfluencedbymemoriesoffamilialsuffering

duringWorldWarIIandvictimizationunderthewidespreadSovietgulagprisonsystem.Basedona2019representative

surveyofUkraine,weshowthatrespondentswhorecallfamilymembersbeinginjuredorkilledfightingduringWorld

WarIIandthosewhorecountfamiliesbeingimprisonedinSovietgulagshaveincreasedpositiveandnegativeappraisalsof

theSovietUnionunderStalinrespectively.However,wealsofindthatfavorableopinionsofStalinarestronglypredicted

byapprovalofVladimirPutin,whohasactivelypromotedrehabilitationofStalin’slegacytobolsterpersonalistruleat

homeandjustifyrevisionistagendasabroad,includinginUkraine.Ourresultsunderscoreinteractionsbetweenthe

presentandpastinshapinghistoricalmemorysuchthatwhatappearsasenduringlegaciesofthepastcouldalsobea

functionofpresentpoliticalcircumstances.

Keywords

publicopinion,historicalmemory,Stalin,Putin,Ukraine,WorldWarII

Introduction

Thereisaburgeoningresearchprogramuncoveringlong-

termlegaciesofhistoricalviolenceonpresent-daypo-

liticalattitudesandbehavior(WaldenandZhukov2021).

Prominentstudieshavefoundenduring,detrimentalef-

fectsofviolenceandpoliticalrepressiononnormsrelated

tosocialtrustandtolerance,aswellasvotingbehavior.

Forexample,NunnandLeonard(2011)revealdestructive

effectsoftheslavetradeonmodern-daytrustinAfrica.

Grosjean(2014)andConzoandSalustri(2019)findthat

exposuretoviolenceduringWWIIstillresonatesinlower

trustinEurope.Homolaetal.(2020)exposehowintol-

eranceandfar-rightsupportinGermanyisgreaterinareas

wheretherewereformerWWIIconcentrationcamps.

Rozenasetal.(2017)tracepresent-dayethnicparochi-

alisminUkrainetorepressivemeasuresunderStalin,

whileZhukovandRoya(2018)highlighttheenduring

negativeconsequencesofStalinerapoliticalrepressionon

contemporaryvotingbehavior.Theliteraturelargelyaf-

firmsthelongreachofhistoricaltraumainshapingthe

beliefs,attitudes,andbehaviorincontemporarypolities.

1

Intermsofmechanisms,mostresearchhasfocusedon

intergenerationaltransmission.LupuandPeisakhin

(2017)identifyfamilialdriversofparochialismamong

CrimeanTatarsresultingfromSovietforcedresettlement.

Acharyaetal.(2013)findasimilartransmissionmech-

anismintermsofslaveryandconservativepoliticalat-

titudesintheAmericanSouth,asdoesMazumder(2018)

inhowcivilrightsprotestsshiftedpartisanshipamong

whiteSoutherners.Beyondthefamily,Balcells(2012)

andVillamil(2020)revealhowlocalnetworkshelp

sustainhistoricalmemoriesoftheSpanishcivilwarfor

futurepoliticalmobilization.Furthermore,Costalliand

Ruggeri(2019)examinehowearlyorganizationalad-

vantageshavepersistentdownstreameffectsonpolitical

preferencesandmobilization,asevidencedfromcom-

munistpartystrongholdsandleftistpoliticsinpost-WWII

Italy.Overall,theliteratureunderscorestheimportanceof

intergenerational,organizational,andnetwork-related

transmissionmechanismstosustainingtheenduring

legaciesofthehistoricalpast.

1

DavisCenterHarvardUniversity,Cambridge,MA,USA

2

DepartmentofPoliticalScience,OneUniversityParkway,HighPoint

University,HighPoint,NC,USA

CorrespondingAuthor:

SamWhitt,DepartmentofPoliticalScience,OneUniversityParkway,

HighPointUniversity,HighPoint,NC,27262,USA.

Email:swhitt@highpoint.edu

Buildingonexistingresearch,weexamineanalter-

nativemechanismactingonhistoricalmemories,whichis

basedontheinfluenceofpresentpoliticalactorsinre-

constitutingthepastfortheirownentrepreneurialpur-

poses.Weassumethathistoricalmemoriesmaynotbe

staticbutvaryacrosstimeandcontext(Bartlett1932;

Kann1958;Moscovici1988;Halbwachs1992).While

scholarshiponthecontemporarypoliticalimpactof

historicalmemoryisemerging(Lee2012;Kesebiretal.,

2013;Bobowiketal.2014;Rim´

eetal.2015;Bouchat

etal.2019),moreworkisneededasthetopicislargely

underexplored.Ourworkisdistinctivebecausewego

beyondquestionsofhistoricallytransmittedtraumasand

experiencesthatiscommonintheliterature.Instead,we

underscorehowpresent-daypoliticalforcescanshape

historicalnarrativesimpactinghowthepastisremem-

bered,reimagined,andthenhandeddowntofuture

generations.

Ourresearchaddstothegrowingcaseliteratureby

examiningthelong-termhistoricallegaciesofviolencein

Ukraine.Wefocusontheeffectofhistoricalmemoriesof

within-familygulagimprisonmentandWorldWarII

battlefielddeathsandinjuriesonappraisalsoftheSoviet

UnionunderStalin.However,wealsoconsiderhow

appraisalsofStalincouldbeinfluencedbycontemporary

attitudestowardRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,who

hasadoptedarevisionistperspectiveonStalin’slegacyto

justifyhisownexpansionistmachinationsinUkraine.By

exploringhowcontemporarysupportforPutininfluences

memory-drivenappraisalsoftheStalinera,wecanil-

lustratethepowerofpresentpoliticalforcesinshaping

historicalawarenessofthepast.

Theory

Untanglingtherelationshipbetweenhistoricalactorsand

events,historicalmemoryandtheinfluenceofpresent

politicalactorsisachallengingtask.First,linkagesbe-

tweenhistoricalfactsandhistoricalmemoryareoften

tenuous(Bartlett1932;Kann1958;Moscovici1961;

Schwartz1982;Halbwachs1992;OlickandJoyce1998;

Olick2013;Rieff2016).AsMoscovici(1988)contends:

“Wederiveonlyasmallfractionofourknowledgeandin-

formationfromthesimpleinteractionbetweenourselvesand

thefactsweencounterintheworld.Mostknowledgeis

suppliedtousbycommunicationwhichaffectsourwayof

thinkingandcreatesnewcontents.”(p.215)

Followingsocialrepresentationtheory(Moscovici

1961),individualmemoriesofthepastarelargelyun-

derstoodandcommunicatedthroughsociallyconstructed

andrepresentativesystemsofcollectivevalues,beliefs,

narratives,andbehaviors.Ratherthanfixedandrigid,

theserepresentationsaresubjecttomovementandchange

overtime.

Dynamicsocialrepresentationsofindividualandcol-

lectivememorymaybeespeciallyprevalentforexperi-

encesofconflictandviolence(PaezandLiu2011;Volhardt

etal.2018).Researchsuggeststhatmemoriesofcollective

traumacanincreasegroupbonding,reinforcingshared

narratives,anditmayalsointensifyadversarialreactionsto

out-groups(WohlandBranscombe2008;Laˇ

sasetal.

2018).Furthermore,studiesinthepsychologyofmem-

oryindicatethathistoricalmemoriesareoftenunreliableas

theyareshapedbyemotionalexperiencesandoutcomes

fromhistoricalevents(Bartlett1932;Levine1997;Levine

etal.2001;Saferetal.2002).Individualsarealsoproneto

“moralrationalizations”ofthepast(Tsang2002),and

memoriescanbecomedistortedthroughmisinformation

(Loftus1992).Theremayalsobeconcernsaboutprefer-

encefalsification,socialdesirabilitybias,ornon-

responsivenesswithrespecttomemoriesofpersonally

sensitivetraumatizingexperiences(Kuran1987;Matanock

andGarc´

ıa-S´

anchez2018;Blairetal.2020).

Historicalmemoriesareoftenpoliticallysensitiveand

contentiousaswell(McGrattan2013;Verovˇ

sek2016).

Memoriesinvolvingindividualorcollective“painand

shame”(LoganandReeves2008;Wang2014);guiltand

responsibility(Frie2012;Olick2013),andtraumatic

eventssuchaswarsandmassacrescanbepoliticallypo-

larizingandthereforeexploitable(Boyd2008;Lagrou

1999;Maier2000;UhlandGolsan2006;Young1994).

Weunderscorehowpresent-daypoliticalactorsandor-

ganizationshaveincentivestoreshapeandmobilizehis-

toricalmemoriestoservestrategicgoals,especiallywhen

theypossessorganizationaladvantagestodoso(Costalli

andRuggeri2019).Thisprocesscanoccurthroughaltering

boththememorialhardwarethatexiststosymbolically

commemoratepastevents(monuments,massgatherings

andotherinstitutionalizedsocialrepresentations)aswellas

memorialsoftwareinvolvinghistoricalnarratives,salience,

andbeliefs(BlackerandAlexander2013;Etkind2004).

Althoughelitesindemocraciesalsohaveincentivesto

manipulatepublicopinionforpoliticalgain(Druckmanand

Jacobs2015),authoritarianregimeshavegreatercontrolof

informationtoalteranddistortcollectivehistoricalmemory

forpoliticalpurposes(Arendt1973;Geddesetal.2018;

Svolik2012).

Ourworkillustrateshowappraisalsofhistoricalactors

andeventsareaffectedbybothpresentpoliticalcir-

cumstancesandrelevantpastexperiences.Toexaminethe

influenceofpastexperiencesonhistoricalmemory,we

followworkbyLupuandPeisakhin(2017)andVilamil

(2020),whoarguethattransmissionofinformationand

framingofhistoricalexperiencestakeplacethrough

socialnetworksinvolvingfamilyandlocalcommunity.

Suchmemorializationcouldbereaffirmingofpositive

Shkliarovetal.967