Leaders looking for ways to get the beehive buzzing again.

• Author: Webb, Gaylen
• Position: On the Job

If the financial markets of Europe don't collapse ... if Iran doesn't go crazy ... if the U.S. stock market doesn't tank ... then Utah's employment picture will remain among the best in the nation.

Like most states, Utah's economy is still fragile; but unlike most other states, Utah is currently among the top five for job growth and should remain so--contingent on no big blowups. So prognosticates Mark Knold, senior economist with the Utah Department of Workforce services.

While Utah's unemployment rate is down to approximately 7 percent, the falling unemployment number doesn't hold as much credence for Knold as does job growth, which is currently at 2.6 percent.

"We are still below our long-term average of 3.1 percent job growth, but in this overall environment, 2.6 percent is about third best in the country--at least within the top five," he says. "Considering where the recession hit, the depth of it, and how long it lasted, 2.6 percent is still good. We are gaining momentum. I think we will be able to inch this thing up as we move into 2012--as long as there isn't a huge collapse in Europe or something else."

To be sure, the jobs picture is improving across the state, but the recession dug a fairly deep hole. "We are just now starting to fill the dirt back in, so to speak, but it will take several years of good job growth to do that," Knold says. "We should have good job growth, but our unemployment rate may still end up higher than we want it to be, as we re-employ people that lost jobs in the recessionary slide."

On the Rebound

If job growth continues as expected, Knold thinks Utah will look like what he calls a rubber ball economy. "The harder you throw the ball down, the faster it bounces back up. It may end up being a bit like that."

The Utah economy went down hard, indeed. The recession brought massive layoffs to the construction and manufacturing sectors and hit the state's younger population especially hard. Now certain sectors are bouncing back strongly.

Manufacturing is one such sector. Last November, during a luncheon with Gov. Gary R. Herbert, leaders from 21 of the state's manufacturing companies told the governor they all planned to increase their hiring within the next six to 12 months. Thomas Bingham, president of the Utah Manufacturers Association, notes that it's fairly typical in recoveries for manufacturing to lead out in bringing people back to work.

"Most everything you buy that isn't a service is a manufactured product; 95 percent of Utah exports are manufactured products" he says.

Still, job growth rates vary greatly among...