Latino Immigrants at the Polls: Foreign-born Voter Turnout in the 2002 Election

• Date: 01 March 2005
• DOI: 10.1177/106591290505800107
• Published date: 01 March 2005
• Author: Matt A. Barreto
• Subject Matter: Articles

Decades of scholarship on voting and elections has

consistently found that Latino foreign-born citizens,

turnout to vote at lower rates than native born Lati-

nos as well as non-Latinos1(Cassel 2002; de la Garza et al.

1992; de la Garza 1996; de la Garza, Menchaca and DeSipio

1994a; DeSipio 1996; DeSipio and de la Garza 1992;

Guerra 1992; Mollenkopf, Olson and Ross 2001; Pachon

1991; Shaw, de la Garza and Lee 2000). Primarily the result

of lower levels of education, income, English language

skills, and exposure to American political institutions,

immigrant voters have consistently demonstrated low levels

of political participation. In addition to a lack of resources,

naturalized Latinos are rarely, if ever, the target of voter

mobilization drives, further decreasing their awareness of

campaign issues and likelihood to turnout.

Recently, however, some scholars have found evidence

that foreign-born voters are not destined to a life of political

exclusion, and in some instances, the recently naturalized

may participate at equal or higher rates than the native

born2(Pantoja, Ramírez, and Segura 2001). Pantoja et al.

examined turnout in the 1996 election, just after the con-

tentious Proposition 187 had been enacted, and during the

election that an anti-Affirmative Action measure (Proposi-

tion 209) was on the ballot. This research empirically details

one example where foreign-born Latinos voted at higher

rates than native-born Latinos and, in some instances, at

rates higher than non-Latinos. Using official vote records

from Los Angeles and Orange counties, California, this arti-

cle examines voter turnout in the November 2002 general

election for more than five million registered voters, includ-

ing differences between foreign-born and native-born Lati-

nos. In short, the results surprisingly reveal that immigrant

voters are driving the growth of the Latino vote in Califor-

nia, and further that in an election with generally low voter

turnout foreign-born Latino voters outvoted native-born

Latinos and non-Latinos.

NATURALIZED CITIZENS AND VOTER TURNOUT:

A NEW THEORY?

Early models of political participation found a significant

relationship between socioeconomic variables and the

propensity to vote (Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes

1960; Verba and Nie 1972; Wolfinger and Rosenstone

1980). In particular, age, education, income, and marital

status were found to be strong predictors of an individual’s

likelihood of voting. Given that many immigrants, particu-

larly those from Latin America, come to this country for

economic opportunities, they typically have not had high

levels of these SES indicator,3and as a result have typically

not had high levels of participation. Further, previous

research into the Latino immigrant noted that they were

detached from American politics and often more interested

in happenings in their home country. An additional

“resource” for navigating the political system that increases

the likelihood of Latino turnout is English language profi-

ciency. As a result of these trends, candidates and campaigns

typically ignored immigrant communities, while elected

79

Latino Immigrants at the Polls:

Foreign-born Voter Turnout in the 2002 Election.

MATT A. BARRETO, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE

Research on voting and elections has generally found that Latino foreign-born citizens turnout to vote at lower

rates than native-born Latinos as well as non-Latinos. Primarily as the result of lower levels of education,

income, and English language skills, immigrant voters have demonstrated low levels of political participation.

In addition, naturalized Latinos are rarely, if ever, the target of voter mobilization drives, further decreasing

their likelihood to turnout. However, with extensive mobilization drives targeting naturalized voters in Cali-

fornia in 2002, and low levels of political interest among the general electorate, higher rates of turnout among

the foreign-born are anticipated. Probit models predicting turnout are explored here and the results reveal that

in California in 2002, for the first time, Latino immigrant voters were significantly more likely to vote than

were the native-born Latinos.

1One exception has been among Cuban immigrants in Miami who have

sustained high levels of political participation (see Moreno and Rae

1992; Moreno and Warren 1992, 1996).

2Pantoja, et al. grouped foreign-born voters by date of naturalization and

found elevated turnout only among those immigrants who naturalized

between 1992-1996, a period of contentious politics for foreign-born

Latinos in California who may have felt “under attack” from statewide

propositions aimed at curtailing benefits for immigrants and Latinos.

NOTE: The author would like to thank Harry Pachon, President of the

Tomás Rivera Policy Institute, for use of the data and support on

this research project. I am also indebted to Katherine Tate, Louis

DeSipio, Bernie Grofman, Gary Segura, Nathan Woods, Ricardo

Ramírez and the reviewers of this manuscript for their feedback on

the models and arguments presented here. In particular, I received

helpful comments from Martin Wattenberg during the revision

process that greatly improved this article.

Political Research Quarterly,Vol. 58, No. 1 (March 2005): pp. 79-86

3Again, the exception here are the politically charged Cuban immigrants,

who needed higher resource levels to escape Cuba for the United States.

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