In the latest Pentagon strategy, uncertainty rules.

• Jurisdiction: United States
• Date: 01 March 2006
• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Published date: 01 March 2006
• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.

An elaborate plan recently unveiled by the Defense Department aims to prepare the military services to cope with a wide range of threats to national security during the next 20 years.

The document lays out a comprehensive strategy that, for the first time, attempts to move the military away from Cold War-style war planning and acknowledges the daunting challenges of "irregular" conflicts, such as Iraq and Afghanistan.

Most notably, the architects of the strategy--known as the quadrennial defense review--recognize that they have no clear foresight into what exactly they expect U.S. military forces to be doing in the next decade or two. Further, the review specifically calls for the military to expand its mission portfolio, but is glaringly lacking in details on what type or size the force should be to accomplish those larger goals.

A close examination of the QDR and comments by defense officials can only lead one to conclude that the Pentagon's crystal ball is much foggier than anyone had predicted before the review was unveiled.

In the QDR, "we put major emphasis on unpredictability and uncertainty in the future world," says Ryan Henry, principal deputy...