Land use.

• Author: Ottensmann, John R.
• Position: Projection Implications on the Economy

Many Hoosiers have become increasingly concerned about the rapid pace of urban development in Indiana. We are seeing the loss of agricultural land, forests, environmentally-sensitive areas, and other open space to new subdivisions and commercial and industrial development. Some have characterized current patterns of development as "urban sprawl." While the population of Indiana is projected to increase by 15 percent from 2005 to 2040, the amount of land in Indiana in urban use could increase by a third or more, resulting in the loss of over 60,000 acres of rural land to urban development, according to the Indiana Department of Transportation.

Urban development is associated with population growth as new residences and businesses are developed to accommodate increasing population. The population projections developed by the Indiana Business Research Center show where these changes will be the greatest and provide the basis for planning to deal with them.

The distribution of projected population growth across Indiana's counties is very uneven. Just sixteen counties have projected population increases from 2005 to 2040 of 10,000 or more (see accompanying metro map).

These sixteen counties account for 86 percent of the net population growth projected for Indiana to 2040. The counties are located within or adjacent to the largest metropolitan areas in the state or are the homes of Indiana's two largest public universities. These are the counties that will see the largest amounts of urban development and the highest levels of conversion of rural land to urban uses.

An additional 12 counties are projected to have population growth in excess of 5,000 persons by 2040, accounting for an additional 9 percent of the state's projected population growth. These counties will also be facing...