Lafayette forecast 2022.

• Author: Hall, Tanya
• Position: Lafayette Metropolitan

The Lafayette Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) continues to be viewed as a booming area with its population growth and strong economic performance. During 2021, the Lafayette area received recognition as having one of the best housing markets. As expected, the data showed how resilient the MSA region was during the pandemic, despite large contractions and rebounds in the service-providing sectors between 2020 and 2021. Once additional data are released, more insight will be given toward the strength of the rebound in relation to income levels. Regardless, the current data point to continued growth in the Lafayette MSA, fettered only by the available labor force and housing stock.

The Lafayette MSA (defined in this article as Tippecanoe, Benton and Carroll counties unless otherwise noted) (1) is projected to have a 2021 population of 228,723 individuals. As expected, the 2020 population estimates (2) show that 84% of the MSA's population reside in Tippecanoe County (196,115 residents) followed by Carroll County with 20,228 residents. Over the past decade (2010-2020), the Lafayette MSA has grown by 24,500 people or 12.2%. The MSA's strong growth stems from the diverse economy in the Lafayette/West Lafayette area and the economic activity associated with Purdue University. This is especially apparent as the smaller surrounding counties continue to experience minimal growth or declining population numbers.

Since 2000, the MSA has expanded by 47,800 residents with 97.8% of that growth occurring in Tippecanoe County. This equates to nearly 2,300 new residents per year in Tippecanoe County. The Indiana University Center for Econometric Model Research (CEMR) projects an increase of 3,460 residents (1.5% growth) in the region in 2022, pushing the total population count to 232,187 individuals (see Figure 1).

Labor

As of September 2021, the Lafayette MSA began to see the labor force and employed numbers return to early 2020 figures. The unemployment rate was at 3.0%, a lower rate than Indiana (3.5%) and the nation (4.6%). The area began 2021 with 109,230 in the labor force and has seen that number grow to 112,292 individuals. As indicated in Table 1, as the year progressed, more individuals entered the labor force and became employed, thus the continuous drop in unemployment figures. As of September 2021, it's worth noting that the region is only 2,500 individuals away from the number of employed individuals in November 2019, when the region had an unemployment rate of 2.8%.

The Lafayette MSA consistently had lower unemployment rates than the state and nation throughout 2020 and 2021. This was likely due to the local university returning to "normal" operations, the sizable quantity of essential workers and the number of employers who pivoted to allow workers to work remotely or safely in-person. It is known that employers are actively seeking more workers and the latest figures show that approximately 3,400 individuals are still looking for work.

Looking forward to 2022, the MSA will likely...