Lafayette forecast 2021.

• Author: Hall, Tanya

The Lafayette Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) continues to be viewed as a booming area given its population growth and strong economic performance. The introduction of a pandemic in 2020 certainly altered its economic trajectory, and the region will feel the effects for many years. Data available at the time of this writing does shed some light on the level of resiliency found in the Lafayette MSA during 2020 and provides hope for an optimistic rebound in 2021.

The Lafayette MSA (defined in this article as Tippecanoe, Benton and Carroll counties) (1) has experienced an 11.9% population growth between 2009 and 2019. In 2009, the MSA passed the 200,000 population threshold; and in 2019, the city of West Lafayette broke the 50,000 population benchmark. (2)The estimated 2020 MSA population stands at 226,730 residents. The MSA's strong growth stems from the diverse economy in the Lafayette/West Lafayette area and the economic activity associated with Purdue University. This is especially apparent as the smaller surrounding counties continue to see declining population numbers.

Since 2000, the MSA has expanded by 47,800 residents (26.7%) with nearly 2,400 new residents per year. The Indiana University Center for Econometric Model Research (CEMR) projects a 0.9% growth in the region in 2021 (+2,000 residents), pushing the total population count to 228,723 individuals (see Figure 1).

Labor

In February 2020, the Lafayette MSA labor market had an unemployment rate of 2.8% and 116,652 individuals employed within the region. The MSA was on par with the projections for the year. Then COVID-19 happened. April 2020 showed the sharp contraction due to nonessential work shutdowns throughout the nation in March, with nearly 10,000 workers added to local unemployment rolls.

The Lafayette MSA consistently had lower unemployment rates between April and September (the most recent data at the time of this writing) than the state and nation (see Table 1). This performance reflects the quantity of essential workers in the MSA, as well as the ability of employers to pivot and allow workers to work remotely or safely in-person. As restrictions eased throughout the summer and early fall, employment numbers increased, leaving nearly 5,600 individuals looking for work as of September 2020.

It is worth noting that the number of individuals in the labor force dropped by 10,100 from its February peak to September 2020. Individuals may have dropped out of the labor force for personal or professional reasons associated with the pandemic. For 2021, the MSA will continue to rebound, with dropping unemployment rates as those seeking employment find it. As job seekers find employment, more individuals will likely enter the labor force, seeking similar opportunities. This ebb and flow of...