Lafayette forecast 2013.

• Author: Hall, Tanya
• Position: Unemployment rate of Metropolitan Statistical Areas - Lafayette, Indiana - Statistical data

Nationally, the year 2012 had glimpses of positive news mixed with disappointing growth. However, the Lafayette Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes Tippecanoe, Benton and Carroll counties, seems relatively sheltered from the national lethargy with its continued slow and steady growth. While the area has not experienced a rapid resurgence from the depths of the recession, it has rebounded more quickly than many other areas of the state.

As we look toward 2013, assuming that the national fiscal cliff issue is resolved in a timely manner, the MSA is poised to continue slow growth with announced business expansions, developments and hiring plans. The Lafayette MSA is viewed as an attractive area to live and work--in part due to Purdue University. We see this optimism in the continued population growth that is expected in the coming years (see Figure 1). In 2012, the population was estimated to increase 0.9 percent to 205,531 residents and maintain a 0.9 percent growth each year through 2015. This level of population growth is more timid than past time periods, namely the 1.9 percent average annual growth seen from 2005 to 2007, yet still is a step in the right direction.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Labor

Over the past few years, the Lafayette MSA has had a lower unemployment rate than Indiana and the United States. The Lafayette MSA consistently outperformed Indiana and the United States (see Table 1). Even during the MSA's unemployment peak in June/July, (1) its rate was between roughly half a percentage point and 1 percentage point less than the state and nation's rates. The spread in unemployment rates between the Lafayette MSA compared to the state and nation reflects the improved economy in the MSA. In conjunction with a declining unemployment rate and fewer unemployed individuals, the number of employed workers and individuals in the labor force has increased--indicating that individuals are finding work and have hope of obtaining a job. In fact, between September 2009 and September 2012, the Lafayette MSA has gained more than 4,100 jobs. The majority of these jobs were in Tippecanoe County (87.3 percent), yet each county's employment growth ranged between 4 percent and 4.8 percent, indicating similar employment growth rates. These job gains exclude institutions and armed forces, thus the job gains are occurring within the public and private sector in the region.

TABLE 1: Labor Force Statistics for the Lafayette MSA, 2011 to 2012...