Lafayette forecast 2012.

• Author: Hall, Tanya
• Position: Statistical data

While 2011 was not marked with a dramatic improvement in the national economy, the Lafayette Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) regained its momentum with a slow but steady rise from the Great Recession. As we look to 2012, it appears that the area will continue to recover at a conservative rate. This recovery pace is on par with the expected rate of recovery throughout the nation, lacking the exuberant growth witnessed after the 2001 economic downturn.

To its benefit, the Lafayette MSA (which includes Tippecanoe, Benton and Carroll counties) is viewed as an attractive area to live and work--in part due to the presence of Purdue University. We see this optimism in the continued population growth that is expected for the next few years (see Figure 1). While the anticipated population growth for 2012 through 2014 (0.4 percent per year) is more docile than the surge seen in 2005 to 2006 (2.1 percent), it still bodes well for the area.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Labor

The Lafayette MSA had a lower unemployment rate than Indiana and the United States in the past year. As seen in Table 1, the Lafayette MSA consistently outperformed Indiana and the United States. The uptick in unemployment in June and July 2011 mirrors the trend seen in 2009 and 2010, which likely reflects of the change in the labor force due to students leaving the area during summer break. The spread in unemployment rates between the Lafayette MSA compared to the state and nation reflects the improved economy in the MSA. In conjunction with a decline in the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed, the number of employed workers and individuals in the labor force has increased--indicating individuals are finding work and have hope of obtaining a job.

Table 1: Labor Force and Unemployment for the Lafayette MSA, 2010 to 2011 Year Month Labor Force Employment Unemployment 2010 August 94,489 85,904 8,585 September 97,715 89,638 8,077 October 97,922 90,227 7,695 November 97,278 89,488 7,790 December 96,428 88,760 7,668 Annual Average 96,225 87,396 8,829 2011 January 95,072 87,609 7,463 February 96,145 88,900 7,245 March 97,019 90,108 6,911 April 97,404 91,107 6,297 May 95,926 89,031 6,895 June 95,058 87,390 7,668 July 94,300 86,669 7,631 August 96,044 88,487 7,557 September * 99,993 92,726 7,267 Lafayette MSA Indiana U.S. Year Month Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 2010 August 9.1% 10.0% 9.5% September 8.3% 9.9% 9.2% October 7.9% 9.7% 9.0% November 8.0% 9.6% 9.3% December 8.0%...