Labor confronts the end of unionism.

• Author: Troy, Leo

IS THERE an alternative to unions and collective bargaining, as we know it? Such a reappraisal is timely because Pres, Clinton has shown his intention to assist the old (and the new, public-sector) unionism. He has appointed officials friendly to unions in the Department of Labor and National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). He has rescinded financial reporting requirements on unions that would disclose expenditures on political and social causes separately from bargaining and grievance matters, which the Bush Administration had instated near the end of its term in office. The Clinton Administration has proposed legislation to ban replacement of strikers in economic strikes (which the House quickly passed, though it was defeated in the Senate).

Clinton appointed a Commission on the Future of Worker-management Relations headed by John Dunlop, an emeritus professor from Harvard University and Pres. Gerald Ford's Secretary of Labor. The Dunlop Commission issued its recommendations for legislative action in January, 1995. These included a number of proposed amendments to the country's basic labor law, the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) of 1935. Among its leading proposals are a speedup in representation elections (which would curtail employers' opportunity to counter union campaign rhetoric); expanding coverage to include some supervisory and lower management personnel (which would weaken managerial authority); pre-hire collective bargaining agreements (employers recognize the union at new or relocated plants, pending an election or a certification by membership cards); mandating the NLRB to seek injunctions against employer unfair labor practices; giving union organizers access to shopping malls to recruit; and procedures, including binding arbitration, to determine the first contract after a union won its initial right to represent employees.

All of these are meant to facilitate union organizing. One recommendation employers will favor would legalize programs of employee participation in making production more efficient. However, the string attached would make supervisory and managerial personnel involved subject to the law, an expansion of its jurisdiction that employers will not approve. As it stands, the proposal would be a Faustian pact for employers. Currently, employee participation programs are banned by the NLRB, although its decision is being challenged in the courts.

The Dunlop Commission claims there is a large unfilled demand for representation, either by unions or some other form of collective body. The basis of its claim is shaky, though. Irrespective of the merits of the commission's proposals, the Republican electoral landslide in November, 1994, will put quietus to its recommendations. The work of the Dunlop Commission will furnish more material for future academic studies and speculation than legislation.

Could these initiatives make a difference? Can they breathe new life into a moribund private-sector unionism? In my opinion, they can not. During the first Clinton year, 1993, private-sector unions lost nearly 150,000 members (1.5% of their total), and there is no reason to expect any reversals for the rest of his presidency.

The old unionism will end the 20th century with about the same market share it had at the beginning of the century-seven percent of the nonfarm labor market. Currently, it is at 11% of private employment, less than one-third of its historic high of 36% in 1953, and even lower than its 12% in 1929. Membership is down more than 7.000,000 from its 1970 all-time record of 17,000,000. These peaks are much too high for the old unionism ever to regain.

Meanwhile, the new unionism continues to expand. In 1993, it rose nearly 370,000, or 5.5%, and now numbers in excess of 7,000,000 members. Moreover, the new unionism is distributed more widely across the country than the old unionism ever was.

Its core strength is teachers, a group whose leaders harbor an ambitious social agenda, particularly in redistributing the national income from the private to the public economy. In fact, the largest union in the entire union movement (public and private combined) is the National Education Association (NEA), once a self-described professional association that abjured the strike and collective bargaining process. The NEA played a more significant role than any labor group at the Democratic Party's convention nominating Bill Clinton for the presidency.

Paralleling the Dunlop Commission, which is dealing with labor relations in the private sector, is a panel established by the Administration to deal with labor relations in the public sector. More public-sector growth can be expected after this commission makes its report. It likely will recommend the "agency shop"--whereby nonunion workers must pay the equivalent or some percentage of regular union dues--to boost unions of public workers. The Administration already has enhanced the political power of Federal employees by retaxing Federal laws restricting their political activity. Thus, there is no reason to alter the forecast that the...