Kyoto Protocol close to entering into force.

• Author: Bast, Elizabeth
• Position: Environmental Intelligences

Both the European Union and Japan ratified the Kyoto Protocol this spring, bringing the climate change treaty's emissions reductions several steps closer to entering into force, despite the staunch opposition of the United States. The protocol, which will become compulsory when ratified by 55 countries accounting for at least 55 percent of 1990 industrial country carbon emission levels, could come into force with as few as two more ratifications.

The 74 parties that have now ratified the treaty account for 35.8 percent of 1990 emissions. With Russia's ratification expected later this year, the treaty will then only need the ratification of Poland, Canada, Australia, or a group of several smaller countries. Poland appears the most likely candidate, as Canada remains undecided, and Australia has declared it will not ratify the treaty unless the United States does. If the treaty enters into force without the United States (the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases), the U.S. will not be required to cut emissions.

Scientists question the effectiveness of a treaty that does not have U.S. participation. U.S. emissions increased 15.7 percent from 1990 to 2001, and they are projected to increase 54 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. The Bush administration continues to reject the treaty on the grounds that it would harm the U.S. economy, despite a June report by the U.S. Environmental Protection...