Kokomo forecast 2022.

• Author: Krabbenhoft, Alan G.
• Position: Indiana University Kokomo

This article, which is part of an annual series, overviews the well-being of the 14-county service region for Indiana University Kokomo. (1) In doing so, it examines several statistics that are key to providing insight into the health of the regional economy. As home to IU Kokomo, and one of the largest cities in the region, there is greater emphasis placed on the city of Kokomo and Howard County--with the understanding that many of the same issues facing Howard County are not unique within the service region.

Central and north-central Indiana continues to find the economy driven by two major sectors. Like much of the state of Indiana, the region is heavily dependent on manufacturing. Given an abundance of farmland, the agriculture sector (and primarily crop production) also plays a significant role.

In terms of manufacturing, roughly one-third of the region's economy depends on it. This dependence is seen both in terms of the level of productivity, but also the level of employment the manufacturing sector is responsible for. Roughly one-third of the region's employment and productivity can be found in the manufacturing sector. Within the sector, the largest level of productivity originates in the production of automobiles and within that industry's supply chain.

A look at any map reveals only a small portion of the 14-county region is comprised of cities and towns. Between these communities, however, exists vast swaths of fertile soil, ideal for producing agricultural products. Thus, it is hardly surprising that agriculture plays such a vital role within the region. While much of the region's rural areas are committed to growing crops, one would be remiss to ignore the important role raising livestock and the requisite processing facilities play. The level of employment in the agricultural sector wanes in comparison to manufacturing. Nonetheless, the region's agricultural production meets not just the needs of the region, but also other parts of the country and many countries around the globe. The ability to meet such needs, however, is highly dependent on growing conditions that are subject to wide yearly fluctuations. In this article, we provide a statewide review of planted and harvested acreage, crop yields, total production, and crop prices per bushel for corn and soybeans. (At this time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly report does not include county-level data.) In terms of livestock, this article focuses on hog production.

Unemployment

While 2020 provided a wild ride in terms of the highs and lows for unemployment, the first nine months of 2021 have displayed relatively more stability. However, this is not to say there have not been some reasonably sized fluctuations. Evidence for such can be seen in Figures 1 and 2 below. The precipitous rise in the unemployment rate in April 2020 was followed by a substantial and reasonably sustained decline. By September 2020, the unemployment rate for Howard County had fallen to 7.9%. The unemployment forecast at that time hinged on the COVID-19 vaccine. While the timing was unknown, the development and deployment of a vaccine was expected to lead to...