Kokomo Forecast 2020.

AuthorKrabbenhoft, Alan G.

This article provides a brief overview of several statistics that factor into measuring the well-being of Kokomo, Howard County and the entire 14-county service region for Indiana University Kokomo. (1) The focus of this article will be on Kokomo and Howard County; however, comparisons will be made with the other 13 counties.

Central Indiana, and in particular the region served by IU Kokomo, is heavily influenced by two sectors within the economy.

* Manufacturing: The local manufacturing sector is heavily represented by and dependent on the automobile industry. Given the labor-intensive nature of this sector, it drives many economic statistics, most importantly employment and the unemployment rate. Both of these statistics offer a great deal of information regarding the economic conditions and welfare of the region and its population.

* Agriculture: While the level of employment in the agricultural sector may not be comparable to that within manufacturing, agriculture both in terms of grain production and livestock drives a considerable portion of Indiana's economic output and is integral to Indiana's importance in international trade. This article looks at both the grain and livestock markets. In terms of grains, the emphasis will be placed upon acreage planted/harvested, yield and total production of corn and soybeans--the two largest crops within the state. Grain prices were also examined to see where changes in crop prices may have influenced the industry. Beyond grains, Indiana's agricultural sector is also heavily dependent on livestock--primarily hogs. Thus, this article also addresses hog production and market prices.

Unemployment

Looking back over the last 20 months, January 2018 through August 2019, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the U.S. has fluctuated around 4 percent. As seen in Figure 1, the unemployment rate in the U.S. was at its highest at 4.5 percent in January 2018 and its lowest at 3.3 percent in April 2019. Within Indiana, a very similar pattern emerged, with the exception that the unemployment rate in Indiana was regularly at least 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the nation. With a rate fluctuating in the low 3 percent range, the high for the period, 4.1 percent, was in January/February 2019 while the low, 2.9 percent, was just three months later in May 2019. Generally, the unemployment rate in Howard County rose and fell in alignment with the U.S. and Indiana, staying between the state and national rates. In November 2018, however, there was a sharp one-month spike in the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Howard County.

Following the November 2018 spike, the county rate stayed above both the Indiana and national rates, experiencing a spike again in April 2019, and then finally moderating from May 2019 through August 2019.

As can be seen in Figure 2, the spike in April 2019 was not unique to Howard County. Both counties immediately north and south of Howard (Miami and Tipton, respectively), saw similar large jumps in their unemployment rates this past April. Both one-month spikes experienced by the three counties appear to be anomalies related to short-term labor disruptions at the local automobile plants that coincided with the reporting cycle for unemployment figures. There does not appear to be any consistent or precipitous change over the 20-month period ending in August 2019. Overall, the period ending rates appear to be slightly lower for the U.S., Indiana and Howard County. However, given the...

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