Kokomo Forecast 2019.

• Author: Krabbenhoft, Alan G.
• Position: Statistical data

This article is intended to provide an overview of the well-being of the economy in Kokomo and Howard County, as well as the entire 14-county service region for Indiana University Kokomo. (1) While some of the focus will be on the entire region, other parts will focus more heavily on Kokomo and Howard County. In doing so, the article draws upon data for the region's two largest sectors--manufacturing and agriculture. As it relates to manufacturing, heavy emphasis is placed upon the automobile industry. In this regard, the level of employment, the unemployment rate and the labor force growth rate define a considerable portion of the region's health. Agriculture is the other primary player within the region. In this regard, the emphasis is on acreage of corn and soybeans planted and harvested, crop yields and market prices for these commodities. Focus also exists on livestock (primarily hogs) and the prices they fetch at market.

Unemployment

Over the course of the last 20 months (January 2017 through August 2018), unemployment rates for the U.S., Indiana and Howard County have seen a sizable reduction (see Figure 1). With the exception of June in both 2017 and 2018, where there were considerable bumps in the unemployment rate within Howard County, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate trended downward. These two bumps were likely caused by a significant number of new entrants to the labor force as schools went on recess for the summer and students began looking for summer jobs. This trend was also consistent across the 14 counties within the region. However, since late 2017--and especially since the first quarter of 2018--Howard County, the other 13 counties, and Indiana as a whole, have seen an increase in the unemployment rate. While the period-ending rate is still lower than the rate 20 months earlier, this trend may be concerning. It has been suggested for the last two years that the continuous long-term declines in the unemployment rate would be less and less likely going forward given the economy was already operating at--or possibly even below--the rate considered to be full employment.

Among the 14-county region, Hamilton County consistently had the lowest unemployment rate in 2018 (see Figure 2). Tipton County would be next in that mix. At the opposite end, Grant Country quite consistently had the highest unemployment rates. Most of the remaining counties experienced a very similar pattern of ups and downs. The majority of the other counties found their rates falling to around 3 percent at the low point but jumping back up to between 3.5 and 4.0 percent in August.

Figure 2: Regional unemployment rates, 2018 January February March April May June July Carroll County 3.6 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.1 Cass County 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.6 Clinton County 3.1 3.4 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.7 Fulton...