Kokomo forecast 2018.

• Author: Krabbenhoft, Alan G.

The purpose of this article is not to provide a comprehensive analysis of economic conditions. It is rather a concise summary of key data that will both allow us to see how the regional economy has progressed during 2017, as well as envision where we may be heading in 2018.

The north-central Indiana regional economy is comprised of the 14-county service area for Indiana University Kokomo. (1) This region is economically diverse. Some cities and/or counties are very dependent on the health of large manufacturers. At the same time, others are heavily rural, and agricultural productivity is critical to their well-being. Given this diversity, we will attempt to address key issues that affect the region as a whole, but greater emphasis will be placed on Kokomo and Howard County.

The employment picture

The unemployment rate has fallen slightly over the year. In September 2016, the unemployment rates for the U.S., Indiana, and Howard County were 4.8, 4.0 and 4.0, respectively. Unemployment rates had fallen during 2016 from nearly 6 percent, and at that time we reported that there would be very little additional downward movement in 2017.

The prediction appears to have been accurate if one looks at August 2017 in Figure 1. However, the unemployment rates dropped precipitously from January to May 2017, falling to below 3 percent for both Howard County and the state in April and May. Meanwhile, the U.S. rate declined but still remained above 4 percent. Since May, however, the rate jumped upward, returning to a more sustainable rate, with both Indiana and Howard County hovering around 4 percent.

Looking beyond Howard County and expanding into the 14-county region, fluctuations in the unemployment rates display a similar pattern since the beginning of the year (see Figure 2). During the first four to five months of 2017, each of the counties saw their unemployment rates decrease considerably. Hamilton County experienced the smallest decrease with the rate falling 1.3 points from 3.3 to 2.0. However, several counties, notably Fulton and Pulaski, saw their unemployment rates fall by nearly 3 percentage points in just several months. For the remainder of the region, the unemployment rates experienced declines between 2 and 2.5 points.

Figure 2: Regional unemployment rates January February March April May June Carroll County 4.9 4.8 3.9 2.5 2.5 3.0 Cass County 5.3 5.4 4.4 3.0 2.9 3.5 Clinton County 4.1 4.1 3.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 Fulton County 5.5 5.3 4.0 2.7 2.6...