Keeping Our Sights on the Horizon: GFOA's Survey on Emerging Issues.

• Author: Bornstein, Irwin B.
• Position: Government Finance Officers Assocation - Statistical Data Included

To assist the membership in identifying emerging trends, GFOA's Committee on Governmental Budgeting and Management (COGBM) recently surveyed a select group of "opinion leaders" in government finance to identify emerging issues affecting government finance and determine the degree of consensus on those issues.

The COGBM's Subcommittee on Revenues and Emerging Issues developed a questionnaire in February 2000. The questionnaire was designed to elicit feedback on the top three issues facing the respondent's jurisdiction over the next two to five years and five to 10 years and the respondent's opinion of the top three issues facing the government finance profession in general over those same two timeframes. The survey also asked respondents to provide what they felt were the three most critical issues overall of those they listed earlier. Finally, the survey asked respondents for information and suggestions related to how GFOA could respond effectively in assisting them with these issues.

To assist respondents in their thought processes, a list of 23 identified issues and four thematic areas was attached to the survey form. These issues and areas were developed from the subcommittee's discussions (see Exhibit 1). The survey also asked some demographic questions in order to determine the extent to which a cross-section of the surveyed population responded.

Questionnaires were sent to members of GFOA standing committees, presidents of state and provincial government finance organizations, and GFOA state/provincial representatives. A total of 239 surveys were sent out, and 59 responses were received in April, representing a response rate of 25 percent. Exhibits 2, 3, and 4 depict the responding population. Survey responders were fairly well distributed geographically. In terms of their GFOA role, the largest single group of respondents (about half) was comprised of members of the GFOA standing committees (48 percent).

In terms of the type of government jurisdiction they represented, the largest single group of respondents was comprised of city employees (53 percent). The distribution of responses among the types of jurisdictions represented was somewhat in line with GFOA's overall membership distribution in 2000 (Exhibit 5), although organizations other than cities, counties, and states/provinces were relatively underrepresented in the survey responses.

Issues Facing State and Local Jurisdictions

Exhibit 6 is a graphical depiction of the issues survey respondents indicated were the top issues facing their own jurisdiction in the next two to five years. Exhibit 7 is a similar presentation for the time period of five to 10 years.

Exhibit 6 indicates that there were five predominant responses to the question of identifying the top issues for one's own jurisdiction during the next two to five years: Internet and Internet taxation, infrastructure issues (aging, maintenance, adequacy thereof and financing), technology and e-government, responses relating to the general issue of "doing more with less," and responses relating to the effective management of growth and annexations. Over a five-to-10-year horizon, responses changed somewhat. In order, the top responses related to infrastructure, growth management and annexations, regionalism/tax base sharing/fiscal reform, Internet and Internet taxation, and technology/e-government (Exhibit 7).

Another interesting method of analyzing the responses is to look at the number of respondents mentioning a particular issue, since each...