Just over the horizon in an election year: the top five foreign policy challenges.

AuthorCotter, Michael

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Commenting on foreign policy in the midst of a presidential election campaign is a challenge in itself, as things have a way of changing rapidly. One example is how the tragic murders in Benghazi of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and his colleagues have become a campaign issue.

Our embassies around the world use presidential elections as an opportunity to highlight our democratic system. Through the International Visitor Program we bring people to the U.S. to observe the democratic process at work in an election campaign. We place stories about the electoral process in foreign media. Many embassies also host events on election night for local citizens and government officials. Depending on the time difference, there may be an electoral map, updated as returns come in, or a link to network coverage. Often there is also a straw vote, allowing guests to vote for a candidate by secret ballot. In my experience, if the election involves an incumbent running for re-election, the incumbent almost always wins the straw vote.

There are a number of reasons for this. One is that the incumbent is better known overseas and the results of these straw polls often reflect voters' familiarity with the candidates rather than a deep understanding of policy issues. But another reason is that foreign governments generally prefer continuity in American foreign policy. The challenger is a relative unknown, and is likely to take policy in unfamiliar directions.

"Ground Truths"

Before getting into specific challenges that the next administration will face, let me suggest six of what I'll call "ground truths" involving foreign policy in relation to U.S. presidential elections.

Ground truth number one is that the time is long past when politics stopped at our borders and foreign policy reflected a bilateral consensus. Now, when the incumbent is running for re-election, his opponent has no choice but to stake out contrasting positions on foreign policy issues. While that does make it easier to differentiate between the candidates, it raises the profile of foreign policy in ways that have serious ramifications.

A corollary is that the time is also past when other countries could ignore U.S. presidential elections. Leaders of several countries with stakes in critical international issues have stated publicly that they are waiting for the presidential election to see what steps the U.S. would take with regard to issues such as the future of Syria, Iran's nuclear program, and U.S.-Russia bilateral relations.

Ground truth number two is that in the event the non-incumbent wins the election, meaningful policy changes are unlikely to occur for some time. Inauguration takes place two months after the election, and even in the best organized transition, key officials aren't named or confirmed for months thereafter. So a fast-moving situation like that in Syria may well have been resolved by the time a new administration can take decisive action, or has even agreed within its ranks what action might be appropriate.

Ground truth number three is that a new administration led by a non-incumbent is likely to face more foreign policy challenges than one led by an incumbent. An incumbent means continuity, but a new president will want to implement new policies and foreign governments will probe to determine his intentions.

Ground truth number four is that campaign promises can often come back to haunt a president. Conventional wisdom holds that most Americans aren't interested in foreign affairs. While candidates try to remain vague on domestic policy in the belief that they will be held to promises, they are more apt to make specific promises on foreign policy in the expectation that the electorate will ignore or forget them. The best example of this is the perennial campaign promise to move our embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a promise always made by non-incumbent candidates, but seldom by incumbents, who have learned the obstacles to actually making that move. This explains why the 2012 Democratic platform originally did not contain such a promise, while its 2008 platform did. If Governor Romney is elected he is likely to find it as impossible to make that move as all previous presidents have done.

Ground truth number five is that a foreign policy crisis that was completely unforeseen may well be the first to which a new president has to respond. The best example of this phenomenon is the impact of the 9/11 events on President George W. Bush's foreign policies. However, this time around several significant foreign policy challenges will have to be faced as soon as the election is decided, and it is unlikely that they will be superseded by a surprise. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Ground truth number six is that any administration's ability to respond to foreign policy challenges depends heavily on the makeup of the Congress. A congress controlled by the party in opposition will severely limit a president's freedom of action in anything less than an existential crisis like 9/11.

All of that said, no election obeys all of these ground truths and this one will be no exception. The geopolitical situation at present is so fluid that the next president will face policy decisions dictated more by changing circumstances than by campaign promises.

Five Top Foreign Policy Challenges For the New Administration

So, given those brief comments on the nitty-gritty of foreign policy politics, what are the five major foreign policy challenges the next...

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