James Stavridis.

Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis served as U.S. Southern Command commander and supreme allied commander at NATO before retiring after 37 years of service. He has penned several books, including his latest, Sailing True North: Ten Admirals and the Voyage of Character.

Let's begin just two decades from now in 2040--much of the outline of what maritime conflict would look like is already fairly clear. Assuming that we are embarking on an era of renewed "great power competition," look for a still-strong American global Navy; a highly competitive Chinese fleet with the ability to challenge U.S. sea power throughout East Asia and somewhat into the Indian Ocean; a Russian fleet in decline but still highly capable in undersea warfare and launching long-range cruise and ballistic missiles; and a rising Indian navy that is optimized for sea control in the Indian Ocean.

From the perspective of platforms, many of the ships that would fight in such a war are already built or in the planning cycle. There will still be a premium on "traditional" capital ships, to include aircraft carriers--by 2040, expect China to have a dozen and India a handful--cruisers much like the Aegis air-defense command ships we know today; and heavy destroyers with multi-domain capability.

One change will likely be a far lower premium on amphibious assault. It will be far more likely that the big deck amphibious ships of today will be converted into strike platforms with smaller, unmanned jets on their decks. While Marines will still look to the Navy for a "ride" to conflict, the idea of assaulting a beach will gradually fade out. It makes far less sense in a great power conflict. Below the sea, look for more and even quieter submarines, both nuclear powered and advanced diesels--especially the latter as battery technology advances.

The three key zones of technological advancement in the 20-year future will be unmanned platforms--on, above and below the sea--elite sea-going special forces--perhaps a larger variation on the SEALs--that are distributed to more decks; and cyber warfare conducted from offshore platforms.

That "new triad" of unmanned, special forces and cyber will be lethal and used in conjunction with the more traditional platforms we see today. Both space systems and laser/directed energy weapons--plus hypersonics--will be emerging as dominant warfighting technologies.

By 50 years out, expect to see the Indian navy increase in all aspects of capability, expanding...

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