Small island states in the face of climatic change: the end of the line in international environmental responsibility.

• Author: Gillespie, Alexander

I.

SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES IN INTERNATIONAL LAW

Small island developing states (SIDS) are increasingly recognized as deserving of special consideration both in international law generally and in international environmental law in particular. This special recognition has grown since the 1992 Earth Summit and was clearly reflected in the 1994 Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (to be revisited in 2004) and within the 2002 Plan of Implementation from the World Summit on Sustainable Development. (1) These documents all reflect the same consideration: that most SIDS face an uphill battle in meeting the challenges of sustainable development irrespective of climate change. Accordingly, they already need specific assistance to meet the economic, social, and environmental problems which already affect them. Accordingly, as the Political Declaration of the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development concluded, the countries of the world will, inter alia, "continue to pay special attention to the developmental needs of Small Island Developing States." (2) However, unfortunately for SIDS, the other dilemmas they face in achieving sustainable development are dwarfed by one environmental problem: climate change.

II.

CLIMATE CHANGE

"Climate change" refers to "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." (3) This anthropogenic climate change is caused by "greenhouse gases." The primary greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous dioxide. These gases are increasing in concentration in the atmosphere. The evidence for this may be seen from the scientific data of the oscillations of historical greenhouse gas concentrations through to more specific contemporary measurements. These measurements show concentrations of greenhouse gases not found in the atmosphere for thousands of years.

III.

THE SOURCES OF THE POLLUTANTS

Modern industrial society is the primary culprit in terms of the creation of greenhouse gases. Since the Industrial Revolution, industry, agriculture, and transport have all contributed vast amounts of emissions. Historically, the lion's share of these pollutants came from developed countries. This share may be seen in terms of sovereign output (i.e., the countries' overall emissions) and per-capita output (i.e., an average individual's emissions from one country compared to another). Both ways of measuring output involve a different emphasis as well as a different political point of view. (4) For example, in the mid-1990s, the global average for per-capita carbon dioxide emissions, in kilograms, was 4157. Despite the average, the differences in the global total ranged from 19,675 kgs for the United States through to 949 kgs for China, 652 kgs for India, all the way down to 2 kgs for Somalia. (5) Although there are some developing countries which are taking their per-capita outputs to comparable levels of those of developed countries, such as Turkey, Korea, and Mexico, (6) the broad disparity in emissions on a per-capita basis between the developed and developing world is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Conversely, when viewed from a sovereign basis, the United States has 36.1% of the total emissions of developed countries, the Russian Federation has 17.4%, Japan has 8.5%, Germany has 7.4% and the UK has 4.3%. (7) However, unlike the remaining differences between developed and developing countries with regard to greenhouse gas emissions on a per-capita basis, a clear change is occurring with regard to sovereign emissions. The key change is that the aggregate emissions from developing countries are growing at a much higher rate than developed countries. (8) If such increases continue, it is expected that the developing world will be producing more carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels by 2005 than all the industrialized countries were producing in 1988. (9) Between 2010 and 2025, the developing world should be responsible for well over half of all global emissions. (10) Certain key developing countries are expected to make exponential increases in their emissions. For example, by 2025 (if not earlier) China is expected to be the world's largest emitter, in overall terms, of greenhouse gases. (11)

IV.

PRESENT CHANGES AND FUTURE PREDICTIONS

The scientific evidence of global warming currently available is consistent with, but does not yet provide definitive proof of, the theories of climatic change. (12) The current evidence consists of continual record-breaking annual global temperatures; (13) increased precipitation and storm activity; enhanced unusual weather patterns (14) over a number of (but not all) regions; (15) an increase in cloud cover over some regions; (16) increased frequency and intensity of droughts in some regions; (17) changes in species migration; (18) shrinkage of glaciers; thawing of permafrost; later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and lakes; lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons; pole-ward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges; declines in some plant and animal populations; and earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birds. Associations between changes in regional temperatures and "observed changes in physical and biological systems have been documented in many aquatic, terrestrial, and marine environments." (19) There is also already evidence that sections of the ocean are becoming less saline (20) and warmer. (21)

Exactly where such trends will take us in the future, in terms of overall temperature changes, is a matter of debate. That is, the current estimates of what the temperature change will be by 2100 range between 1.4[degrees]C and 5.8[degrees]C. (22) The variance in this figure is due to unpredictable factors such as technology, demographic change, and economic development. (23) This is an important point: the full effects of climate change are not unalterable and choices that governments make in the present have the ability to influence any final outcome. Despite the fact that the climatic future is not set in concrete, it is likely that without any radical changes to current emissions that humanity will witness temperature increases in the range of 0.1[degrees]C to 0.2[degrees]C per decade over the short term future. (24) Although these figures appear small, if they continue unabated they may come to represent eventual temperature changes which have not been seen for tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of years.

V.

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE UPON SIDS

The adverse effects of climatic change are those which result in alterations in the physical environment or biota "which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience, or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems, or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare." (25) These adverse effects could result in significant impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors. (26) It is likely that these effects will be more pronounced on developing countries due to their restricted ability to adapt to quickly changing situations. (27)

In terms of specific effects, climatic change will affect a vast number of ecologically related considerations. In terms of overall problems facing a large number of countries it is expected that climatic change will, in certain areas, affect food production in terms of output and location, (28) cause fresh water stress, (29) increase heat waves, (30) and, in conjunction with other factors, cause increased levels of certain diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. (31)

With particular regard to SIDS, a number of additional threats may be considered paramount. Firstly, the sea levels may rise slowly due to thermal expansion of the oceans and reactions of the icecaps. (32) The time frame adopted for this picture will affect the picture of the anticipated sea level rise. As a rule, increases in the rise of sea levels are much greater the further the time frame is cast. (33) For example, in 500 years an eventual rise of seven to thirteen meters may be likely. (34) However, the typical time frame is 100 years. Thus, between 2000 and 2100, the global mean sea level is projected to rise by between 0.09 and 0.88 meters. (35)

Sea level threats may have a detrimental effect on a number of industrialized and developing countries. (36) However, as bad as sea level increases may be for these countries, it is the SIDS which are at the edge of extreme risk. This threat has been repeatedly recognized within the discussions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), (37) regional groupings such as the South Pacific Forum, (38) and the UN Global Conference for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States, which noted:

While small island developing states are among those that contribute least to global climate change and sea level rise, they are among those that would suffer most from the adverse effects of such phenomena and could in some cases become uninhabitable. (39) This prognosis is possible given the fact that many SIDS rarely rise more than three to four meters above present mean sea level. (40) A one-meter rise in sea level could result in an 80% land loss for the Majuro Atoll in the Marshall Islands. (41) The Maldives consist of some 1300 tiny islands, with an average size of only one to two square kilometers in width and an average one to one and a half meters above mean sea level. (42) Tuvalu consists of five atolls and four separate reef islands and has a total land mass of only twenty-three square kilometers, virtually all of which is under two meters above sea level. (43) Kiribati consists of 700 square kilometers on...