Is it slower yet?

• Author: PETERSON, ERIC

INDICATORS REVEAL THE ECONOMY MIGHT BE COOLING, BUT OBSERVERS SAY IT'S TOO SMALL TO COUNT WHERE WILL IT GO?

Stumbling stocks, interest rate hikes and labor shortages, oh my!

While this year's economic headlines may not equal their recent history in the Centennial State, the Wicked Witch of Recession is still nowhere in sight. A nominal slowdown appears to be inevitable, but regional economists do not see it as necessarily bad or a bust, such as those in the mid-'70s/early '80s, and the late '80s/early '90s. In fact, an economic slowdown at this point looks pretty good, the fiscal equivalent of Colorado's economy catching its collective breath.

"The economy's slower -- yes," said Tucker Hart Adams, the Denver-based chief economist for US Bank. "Is it slow enough that the average person on the street is going to notice it? The answer is 'no.' It'll still be hard to find an apartment. It'll still be nearly impossible to find a moderately priced home. It'll still be easy to find a job."

In other words, even if job growth and migration go down, they'll still be positive numbers.

For the record, Colorado's year-to-date employment growth stood at 3.9% through May even higher than the 3.7% of 1999. The state's economists last year had forecasted a 2.8% growth in employment for 2000, but as of the end of July, growth had exceeded expectations. "It's hard to tell that (a slowdown) has actually happened yet this year," said Tom Dunn, the chief economist for the state's Legislative Council. "It's still very strong growth."

Colorado's economy "has slowed from 90 miles an hour to 70 miles an hour," said Jeff Thredgold, a Salt Lake City-based economic consultant to Vectra Bank Colorado. "I think it will slow a little further ... because you can't find a body to hire." In May, Colorado's unemployment rate dropped to an all-time low of 2.2%, nearly two full points lower than the national rate. "To have that low of unemployment in a state the size of Colorado with steady employment growth is amazing," Thredgold noted.

Small-business owners might call the situation something less than amazing and closer to infuriating. "Right now in Colorado, the economy's so hot, it's constraining to small businesses who can't fill open positions," Thredgold said. "And they're scared of losing their people to somebody else."

Colorado's high-tech companies are among the labor shortage casualties; Front Range high-tech companies are short 6,000 to 7,000 employees, according to...