Is Crime Rising or Falling? A Comparison of Police-Recorded Crime and Victimization Surveys

• Published date: 26 August 2019
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1521-613620190000024004
• Date: 26 August 2019
• Pages: 7-31
• Author: Barak Ariel,Matthew Bland

7

Methods of Criminology and Criminal Justice Research

Sociology of Crime, Law and Deviance, Volume 24, 7–31

Copyright © 2019 by Emerald Publishing Limited

All rights of reproduction in any form reserved

ISSN: 1521-6136/doi:10.1108/S1521-613620190000024004

CHAPTER 1

IS CRIME RISING OR FALLING?

A COMPARISON OF

POLICE-RECORDED CRIME AND

VICTIMIZATION SURVEYS

Barak Ariel and Matthew Bland

ABSTRACT

Purpose – Statistics about the level of crime continue to attract public and

political attention but are often presented in conicting ways. In England

and Wales, police-recorded crimes are no longer considered “national statis-

tics” and, instead, the crime survey of England and Wales (CSEW) is used.

However, it is not clear why partial population data (e.g., police-recorded

crime) are considered less reliable or valid for measuring temporal crime trends

in society than inferential statistical estimation models that are based on sam-

ples such as CSEW. This is particularly the case for approximating rare events

like high-harm violence and specic harmful modus operandi (e.g., knife crime

and rearms). In this chapter, the authors cross-reference victim survey and

police-recorded data to determine similarities and contradictions in trends.

Methods – Using police data and CSEW estimates, the authors contrast

variance and logarithmic trend lines since 1981 across a range of data cat-

egories and then triangulate the results with assault records from hospital

consultations.

Findings – Change in crime rates in recent years is neither as unique nor

extreme as promulgated in media coverage of crime. Moreover, analyses show

conicting narratives with a host of plausible but inconclusive depictions of the

8 BARAK ARIEL AND MATTHEW BLAND

“actual” amount of crime committed in the society. The authors also conclude

that neither source of data can serve as the benchmark of the other. Thus, both

data systems suffer from major methodological perils, and the estimated crime

means in CSEW, inferred from samples, are not necessarily more valid or accu-

rate than police-recorded data (particularly for low-frequency and high-harm

crimes). On the other hand police-recorded data are susceptible to variations in

recording practices. As such, the authors propose a number of areas for further

research, and a revised taxonomy of crime classications to assist with future

public interpretations of crime statistics.

Originality – There is much public and academic discourse about different

sources of crime measurement yet infrequent analysis of the precise similari-

ties and differences between the methods. This chapter offers a new perspective

on long-term trends and highlights an issue of much contemporaneous concern:

rising violent crime.

Keywords: Rising crime; victim surveys; recorded crime; violent crime;

crime statistics; police records

INTRODUCTION

Is crime going up or down in society? This question is frequently the subject of

public debate, being of particular interest to politicians and police professionals

alike (Mercer, 2019). Being able to answer this question accurately is also essential

for policing scholars who seek to identify appropriate targets (Sherman, 2013),

as well as for scholars interested in research methods and crime trajectory analy-

ses (Farrington, 1979; Jennings, Gray, Hay, & Farrall, 2015). However, temporal

patterns – that is, what are often referred to as “trends” in crime volume and

type – are difcult to measure and interpret (Nguyen & Loughran, 2018). For

example, is an arithmetic increase in crime volume during a particular time period

a genuine upward crime trend? The answer is not simple, as the increase can be

explained through other theories: crime-recording practices, crime reporting pat-

terns, or changes in the denitions of crime, which are all plausible explanations

vis-á-vis the case for explaining an arithmetic increase as an “actual” change in

crime volume or type.

One major reason for the difculty in interpreting crime gures is that the ways

in which they are measured, or estimated, determine the outcome. From a meth-

odological perspective, when crime levels are dependent on the data collection

methodology, it raises suspicions about the integrity of claims about increases

or reductions in crime levels over time. Put differently, if the measurement tool

“causes” the uctuations in the gures, we experience statistical noise, to a point

that we may not trust the measurement at all.

Given these concerns, in England and Wales, police-recorded crimes were

recently declared to be invalid national statistics of crime. Statisticians made the

case that police-recording practices affect crime records to such an extent that we