Is America facing another Dust Bowl?

• Position: YOUR LIFE

Oceanic conditions similar to those that triggered the ruinous "Dust Bowl" drought during the Great Depression of the 1930s appear to be in place, warn meteorologists at AccuWeather.com, State College, Pa. The exceptionally warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean that played a major role in the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season, coupled with cooler-than-normal Pacific Ocean waters, are weakening and changing the course of a low-level jet stream that normally channels moisture into the Great Plains.

The low-level jet stream--a fast moving current of winds close to the Earth's surface--travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing much-needed moisture to the croplands of the Great Plains. Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region. The shift also is allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.

Besides dramatically reducing precipitation for the region, the changes brought about by the abnormal sea-surface temperatures also should result in higher surface temperatures. "When surfaces are wet, energy from solar radiation simultaneously evaporates moisture and heats the ground," notes chief meteorologist Elliot Abrams. "When no moisture is present, all that energy is channeled toward heating the ground, and the warmer ground heats the lower atmosphere. The combination of low moisture and higher temperatures would be a crippling one-two punch for the Great Plains should these damaging conditions persist, much like what occurred during the Dust Bowl drought."

"It's amazing how dry the Southern Plains are," says Ken Reeves, director of forecast operations. "The recent breakout of lethal wildfires, which killed more people than the tornadoes that were striking at the same time in the Midwest, are just one indication. We're seeing readings of one percent humidity in some areas, which is extreme. Blowing clouds of dust are reducing visibility in places such as Lubbock and Amarillo, Tex., to about a mile or so. To one extent or another, Texas, New Mexico, southeast...