Is Agricultural Investment in China Affected by Economic Slowdown?

AuthorYing Chen,Kevin Z. Chen,Shenggen Fan
Date01 March 2018
Published date01 March 2018
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.18278/wfp.4.2.10
175
Is Agricultural Investment in China
Aected by Economic Slowdown?
Kevin Z. Chen, Ying Chen, and Shenggen Fan1
A
is paper assesses the existing and possible future impact of eco-
nomic slowdown on agricultural investment in China. It nds that
growth in agriculture was more resilient during the recent econom-
ic slowdown than growth in the manufacturing and service sectors.
In addition, robust domestic food demand and various forms of
government support are likely to continue contributing to increas-
es in agricultural investment and to the adjustment of investment
structure. Moreover, while increasing the amount of investment
is important, it is equally important to increase the eciency of
public investment and to strike an optimal balance between public
and private investment. Finally, to inform evidence-based policy
changes, future research should analyze the eect of agricultural
investment on reductions in poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.
Keywords: Economic Slowdown, Supply-side Reforms, Agricultur-
al Investment
¿La inversión agrícola en China está afectada
por la desaceleración económica?
R
Este documento evalúa el impacto existente y posible futuro de
la desaceleración económica en la inversión agrícola en China.
Encuentra que el crecimiento en la agricultura fue más resistente
durante la reciente desaceleración económica que el crecimiento
en los sectores de manufactura y servicios. Además, es probable
que la robusta demanda interna de alimentos y las diversas for-
mas de apoyo gubernamental sigan contribuyendo al aumento de
la inversión agrícola y al ajuste de la estructura de la inversión.
Adicionalmente, aunque incrementar la cantidad de inversión es
importante, es también importante incrementar la eciencia de la
1 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
doi: 10.18278/wfp.4.2.10
World Food Policy • Vol. 4, No. 2 / Spring 2018
World Food Policy
176
inversión pública y llegar a un balance óptimo entre la inversión
privada y la pública. Finalmente, para informar los cambios en las
políticas basadas en evidencia, la investigación futura debe analizar
el efecto de la inversión agrícola en la reducción de la pobreza, el
hambre y la desnutrición.
Palabras clave: desaceleración económica, reformas del lado de la
oferta, inversión agrícola
经济增长放缓会影响中国农业投资吗?
摘要
本文评估了经济增长放缓对中国农业投资的现存影响和可能
的未来影响。文章发现,农业投资增长在近期经济增长放缓
期间比制造业和服务业的投资增长要更为稳健。此外,稳健
的国内食品需求和不同形式的政府支持很有可能继续促进农
业投资的增长,同时促进投资结构的调整。尽管投资数量的
增长极为重要,但同等重要的是增加公共投资效率和在公共
投资和私人投资之间找到最佳平衡。最后,为得出基于证据
的政策变化,今后的研究应分析农业投资对减少贫困、饥饿
和营养不良所产生的影响。
关键词:经济增长放缓,供应方改革,农业投资
1. Introduction
Since the beginning of economic
reforms in 1978, China has ex-
perienced rapid economic and
social development. It notched up an
impressive average annual growth rate
of over 10 percent in the past decades
and helped more than 800 million peo-
ple move out of poverty (World Bank
2016b). However, since 2012 China’s
economy has shown a marked slow-
down. e GDP growth declined from
double-digit levels before the 2008 -
nancial crisis to around 6.9 percent in
2015. Moreover, World Bank cut the
latest forecast for Chinas GDP in 2016
by 0.4 percentage points from its esti-
mate in January 2016. e estimated
growth for 2017–2020 has been re-
vised down to 6.0 percent (World Bank
2016a). Although estimates of Chi-
na’s GDP growth are still higher than
the global average and most emerging

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