Investigative Outcomes of CODIS Matches in Previously Untested Sexual Assault Kits

• Author: William Wells,Alicia Jurek,Joshua Shadwick,Robert C. Davis
• Date: 01 October 2021
• Published date: 01 October 2021
• DOI: 10.1177/0887403421990723
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403421990723

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2021, Vol. 32(8) 841 –864

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/0887403421990723

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Article

Investigative Outcomes of

CODIS Matches in Previously

Untested Sexual Assault Kits

Robert C. Davis1, Alicia Jurek2,

William Wells3, and Joshua Shadwick4

Abstract

A 2011 Texas statute required that police agencies submit to the state all unanalyzed

sexual assault kits between 1996 and 2011. Cases where a match was made with DNA

from an individual or case were returned to local agencies for additional investigation.

This article examines outcomes of these cases. Consistent with other studies, we

found that the ratio of arrests to all kits submitted was below 1%, and the ratio of

arrests to Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) hits was 5.5%. A cost analysis

concluded that the cost per court filing was US$132,000. We argue that the small

number of arrests was partially due to the age of the cases, based on 8- to 23-year-

old crime reports. We further contend that the program could have produced better

results if the state had provided funding more quickly for testing and investigations.

Keywords

policy implications, violence against women, sexual assault

Introduction

In the early 2000s, The United States Department of Justice began providing funding

to assess the number of criminal cases with unsubmitted forensic evidence in U.S.

police departments. The investigators found that “[t]he backlog of unsolved rapes and

homicides in the U.S. is massive,” (Lovrich et al., 2004, p. 2) with approximately

48,000 homicides and 155,000 rapes with DNA evidence sitting unsubmitted (Pratt

1National Police Foundation, Arlington, VA, USA

2Independent researcher, San Diego, CA

3Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, TX, USA

4SE Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO

Corresponding Author:

Robert C. Davis, National Police Foundation, 2550 S Clark St, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.

Email: rdavis@policefoundation.org

990723CJPXXX10.1177/0887403421990723Criminal Justice Policy ReviewDavis et al.

research-article2021

842 Criminal Justice Policy Review 32(8)

et al., 2006). Since that time, national funds have been earmarked to assist with the

testing of previously unsubmitted sexual assault kits (SAKs), and state and local laws

have been enacted to clear the backlogs and ensure universal testing of these kits.

A number of factors have contributed to low submission rates of SAKs, as research

has found that some police investigators perceive no benefit to submitting some SAKs

for DNA analysis. These include cases in which the police believed the victim was an

unreliable or uncooperative witness, could not be located, the suspect claimed the

sexual contact was consensual, or the suspect had already taken a plea agreement

(Campbell & Fehler-Cabral, 2018; Campbell, Fehler-Cabral, et al., 2015; Campbell,

Shaw, & Fehler-Cabral, 2015). In addition to prosecutorial challenges, a lack of

resources (e.g., money, staff) has also been cited as a reason for not testing all SAKs

(e.g., Campbell & Fehler-Cabral, 2018; Lovrich et al., 2004; Strom & Hickman, 2010).

In response to the lack of universal testing of SAKs, stakeholders argue that pre-

viously unsubmitted SAKs may still hold evidentiary value. More specifically, if

now tested, they may lead to the arrest and prosecution of offenders, and especially

those offenders who have committed multiple crimes (Lovell et al., 2020). Comparing

samples from these unsubmitted kits to samples in state and federal DNA databases

would expose such offenders who would otherwise have remained hidden. Testing

and upload of forensic evidence to the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS), a

computer system that links DNA databases containing offender profiles across the

nation (United States Department of Justice, 2002), was expected to assist in the

identification of serial sexual offenders, bring previously unidentified offenders to

justice, and exonerate innocent suspects (Campbell, Feeney, et al., 2017; Lovell,

Yang, & Klingenstein, 2018).

Recent research has begun to examine the benefits as well as the costs of submitting

previously unsubmitted SAKs for DNA analysis. This line of empirical inquiry has

primarily focused on the impact these unsubmitted SAKs have had on criminal justice

outcomes within a singular, metropolitan area (Campbell, Shaw, et al., 2015; Lovell,

Luminais, et al., 2018; Wells et al., 2016). To our knowledge, no research to date has

examined the impact a statewide, universal testing mandate has had concurrently

across multiple metropolitan areas. As a result, the present study capitalizes on a 2011

Texas law that, for the first time, required universal submission of SAKs to accredited

crime labs, as well as identification and DNA analysis of previously unsubmitted kits

in the possession of local law enforcement agencies. Because the statute affected the

entire state, the numbers of unsubmitted SAKs identified was large (more than 18,000),

offering an unusual opportunity to examine the benefits and costs of DNA analysis of

previously unsubmitted SAKs in a large sample of cases.

Review of the Relevant Literature

Estimates have placed the number of unsubmitted SAKs to be more than 200,000

(Campbell, Feeney, et al., 2017; Lovrich et al., 2004; Strom & Hickman, 2010). In

2015, the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) launched the Sexual Assault Kit Initiative

(SAKI) to provide financial assistance and technical support to jurisdictions address-

ing the problem of unsubmitted SAKs (BJA, n.d.). Overall, the SAKI (2019) assisted