Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Data Set for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities

• Date: 01 August 2020
• Author: Benjamin E. Goldsmith,David Muchlinski,Sascha Nanlohy,Charles Butcher,Arcot Sowmya
• Published date: 01 August 2020
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002719896405
• Subject Matter: Data Set Feature

Data Set Feature

Introducing the Targeted

Mass Killing Data Set for

the Study and Forecasting

of Mass Atrocities

Charles Butcher

1

, Benjamin E. Goldsmith

2

,

Sascha Nanlohy

3

, Arcot Sowmya

4

,

and David Muchlinski

5

Abstract

This article describes a new data set for the study of genocide, politicide, and similar

atrocities. Existing data sets have facilitated advances in understanding and policy-

relevant applications such as forecasting but have been criticized for insufficient

transparency, replicability, and for omitting failed or prevented attempts at geno-

cide/politicide. More general data sets of mass civilian killing do not typically enable

users to isolate situations in which specific groups are deliberately targeted. The

Targeted Mass Killing (TMK) data set identifies 201 TMK episodes, 1946 to 2017,

with annualized information on perpetrator intent, severity, targeted groups, and

new ordinal and binary indicators of genocide/politicide that can serve as alternatives

to existing measures. Users are also able to construct their own indicators based on

their research questions or preferred definitions. The article discusses the concept

and operationalization of TMK, provides comparisons with other data sets, and

highlights some of the strengths and new capabilities of the TMK data.

1

Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology,

Trondheim, Norway

2

School of Politics & International Relations, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

3

Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

4

School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

5

Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Charles Butcher, Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and

Technology, Trondheim, Norway.

Email: charles.butcher@ntnu.no

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2020, Vol. 64(7-8) 1524-1547

ªThe Author(s) 2020

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0022002719896405

journals.sagepub.com/home/jcr

Keywords

genocide, mass atrocities, quantitative data, violence against civilians

This article describes the Targeted Mass Killing (TMK) data set, a new resource for

the study of genocide and other mass atrocities that target particular ethnic, religious,

or political groups.

1

In quantitative social science, genocide and mass killing are

under-researched topics, relative to their devastating impacts. By one estimate

(Anderton 2014), more than 84 million civilians were killed in genocide and mass

killing episodes since 1900, while roughly 36 million combatants died in inter- and

intrastate wars, and just under 250,000 people were killed in incidents of terrorism.

Yet, there are fewer than 50 quantitative studies of genocide and mass killing

compared to more than 500 of interstate war and more than 100 each of terrorism

and civil war (Anderton and Carter 2015).

To an extent, this gap is also reflected in efforts to predict genocide and mass

killing. Advances in social science mean that forecasting some high-impact events is

a reasonable goal. This includes forecasts of US national and local election outcomes

and turnout (Campbell 1992, 2014; Lewis-Beck and Rice 1984), forecasts of civil

and interstate war (Brandt, Freeman, and Schrodt 2011; Schrodt and Gerner 1997;

Hegre et al. 2017; Tikuisis, Carment, and Samy 2013), political instability (Gold-

stone et al. 2010; O’Brien 2002), ethnic conflict (Weidmann and Duffy Toft 2010),

and forecasts of specific events and decisions (Bueno de Mesquita 1997; Organski

and Lust-Okar 1997; Schrodt and Gerner 1997; Gleditsch and Ward 2013). To the

best of our knowledge, there are three groups producing genocide-related forecasts

based on quantitative models (Goldsmith and Butcher 2018; Harff 2012; Ulfelder

2013), and two rely on genocide data produced by the Political Instability Task

Force (PITF; Marshall, Gurr, and Harff 2017).

2

This article outlines a new data set

designed to stimulate quantitative work on the analysis and prediction of genocide

and related mass atrocities.

In part due to the use of different definitions of genocide (Verdeja 2012), con-

siderable disagreement persists over its basic correlates and causes (Stewart 2013).

While we do not claim to develop the single “correct” definition for all scholars or

all purposes, we have reconceptualized the definition that is most commonly used in

quantitative analyses and forecasts in a way that we believe is better suited to these

purposes (Verdeja 2013, 41). Taking our cues from the pathbreaking work of Harff

and Gurr (1988), we developed the concept of TMK to improve connections

between concepts and measurement, improve documentation and reproducible cod-

ings, include nonstate actors, and capture attempted (and possibly thwarted) geno-

cides (Goldsmith and Butcher 2018; Ulfelder 2013; Ulfelder and Valentino 2008;

Verdeja 2013).

The TMK data set employs a baseline measure of atrocity severity and perpetrator

intent to identify 201 episodes (1946–2017). Indicators of higher-level intent and

Butcher et al. 1525