Introducing the Emerging Technologies Institute.

• Author: Lewis, Dr. Mark J.
• Position: Emerging Technology Horizons

* In January 1991, coalition forces led by the United States launched the opening moves in the Gulf War with an air campaign that demonstrated America's overwhelming technological superiority. The entire world watched in awe as stealth aircraft, nearly invisible to radar, flew unhindered over the skies of Baghdad; video- and laser-guided munitions struck military targets with exquisite precision; and anti-radiation missiles made easy work of defenders' surface-to-air radar systems.

The fruits of America's investments in research and engineering were on full display as the armed forces achieved not only superiority, but total supremacy over the Iraqi military.

In the intervening 30 years, peer competitors have had ample time to study our way of war. This means not only emulating and copying U.S. technologies, but also probing for vulnerabilities. For example, potential adversaries have realized that we are highly reliant on space and have invested in ways to hold our systems at risk. As former Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson described the dilemma we face with our space capabilities, "We built a glass house before the invention of stones."

But even more concerning, peer competitors have not only focused on negating our advantages; they have learned from us the value of investing in future technologies and are moving forward in a very big way.

In the key area of hypersonics, both Russia and China have made investments that built on research and development done in the United States, having moved quickly to operational systems while we wrung our hands and failed to capitalize on our own successes. China especially recognized the value of hypersonic weapons--highly maneuverable missiles capable of flight beyond five times the speed of sound--and the ways they could be effectively employed against our systems. In hypersonics they saw a range of technologies that could offer significant advantages against the Navy and U.S. air bases, and which they could make operational before we did. Russia has bragged openly about its already deployed hypersonic systems.

China has stated its intention to lead the world in areas of artificial intelligence, quantum science and biotechnology. The Chinese government has made significant investments in each of those topics, building infrastructure and expanding its workforce. China recognizes that those are technologies that will drive not only the future of defense, but the future of their nation's...