International Seminar on Macroeconomics.

The NBER's 24th Annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey A. Frankel, NBER and Harvard University, and Francesco Giavazzi, NBER and Bocconi University, was held on June 8-9 at University College Dublin (Ireland). The following papers were discussed:

Anne Sibert, Birkbeck College, "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Central Bank Preferences" Discussants: Mervyn King, NBER and Bank of England, and Lars Svensson, NBER and Stockholm University

Arrt Kraay, World Bank, and Jaume Ventura, NBER and MIT, "The Role of Trade in International Transmission of Business Cycles" Discussants: Antonio Fatas, INSEAD, and James Stock, NBER and Harvad University Eduardo Loyo, Harvard University, "Imaginary Money"

Discussants: Zvi Eckstein, Tel Aviv University, and Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Raquel Fernandez, NBER and New York University, "Education, Segregation, and Marital Sorting: Theory and an Application to U.K. Data" Discussants: Alberto Alesina, NBER and Harvard University, and Gianluca Violante, University College London

Romain Wacziarg, Stanford University, "Structural Convergence" Discussants: Tito Boeri, Universita Bocconi, and Peter Neary, University College Dublin

Rodney Thom and Brendan Walsh, University College Dublin, "The Effect of a Common Currency on Trade: Ireland Before and After the Sterling Link"

Discussants: William A. Branson, NBER and Princeton University, and Andrew Rose, NBER and University of California at Berkeley

Susanto Basu, NBER and University of Michigan, and John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, "Aggregate Productivity and Aggregate Technology"

Discussants: Robert J. Gordon, NBER and Northwestern University, and Jean Imbs, London Business School Philip lane, Trinity College Dublin, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, International Monetary Fund, "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate"

Discussants: Barry Eichengreen, NBER and University of California at Berkeley, and Richard Fortes, NBER and London Business School

Sibert analyzes the effect of unobservable central bank preferences on the actions of the central bank and on inflation. In her basic model, central bankers serve two terms. The weight that they place on output, relative to inflation, is their private information (that is, unobservable). The model shows that all but the most dovish central bankers inflate less they otherwise would in their first period in office in order to differentiate themselves from less...