"Institutional Structures Utilized in State Revenue Forecasting".

• Author: Voorhees, William
• Position: Budgeting - States typically rely on non-consensual budget forecast approach - Abstract

William Voorhees

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, Summer 2002, pp. 175-195.

Inaccurate state revenue projections result in either a budget shortfall or a surplus. Either way, the incorrect projection creates a disruption that state governments try to avoid. Therefore, states strive for accurate forecasts in order to prepare a budget encountering as few unforeseen contingencies as possible. The author surveyed 48 states to identify the most common institutional forecasting structures. The survey was designed to answer six questions: (1) How is the forecast formulated? (2) How do the states agree on the forecast? (3) Do state revenue forecasts constrain the budget? (4) Do the states use university consulting? (5) Do the states have a formal council of economic advisors? and (6) What is the frequency of state revenue forecasts? The research revealed that the typical state employs a non-consensual approach in which the...