The Institutional and Demographic Determinants of Latino Representation

• Date: 01 August 2009
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3162/036298009788897781
• Published date: 01 August 2009
• Author: JASON P. CASELLAS

399Determinants of Latino Representation

LEGISLATIVE STUDIES QUARTERLY, XXXIV, 3, August 2009 399

JASON P. CASELLAS

The University of Texas at Austin

The Institutional and

Demographic Determinants

of Latino Representation

Under what conditions are Latino candidates elected to Congress and state

legislatures? How much does the ethnic composition of a district affect the chances

that a Latino candidate will be elected in that district? Latinos constitute the single

largest minority group in the country, one that is growing at an exponential rate.

Post-2000 redistricting created more majority-Latino districts, but the absolute number

of Latino legislators did not increase correspondingly. My analysis demonstrates that

states with citizen legislatures and with higher legislative turnover rates are more

conducive to the election of Latino candidates than are other states. Institutional and

demographic differences among states affect the states’ Latino descriptive represen-

tation. Namely, the institutional design of the legislature matters in terms of electoral

responsiveness, with Arizona and California being the most responsive bodies and

New York and the U.S. House the least responsive.

Latino membership1 in American legislative institutions has no

doubt increased in the past decade, but Latinos are still descriptively

underrepresented in Congress and state legislatures. This article

examines Latino representation in all 50 states by tracking the number

of Latino representatives serving in legislatures over the past decade

and comparing the percentage of Latinos in the state population with

the percentage of Latinos in each legislature. Congress has long been

the focal point for studies of representation, but this is the first

comparative analysis of Congress and state legislatures.

This analysis offers significant advantages. First, it increases the

number of Latino legislators who can be studied. Only 23 Latinos

currently serve in Congress (excluding Resident Commissioner Luis

Fortuño of Puerto Rico), so focusing exclusively on how those

politicians gained office does not provide adequate leverage on the

central questions of Latino representation. Approximately 220 Latino

representatives serve in the 50 state legislatures, offering scholars a

400 Jason P. Casellas

much larger pool. Second, broadening the study to include state

legislators increases the variance in the explanatory variables. Some

states have high concentrations of Latino constituents; most do not.

Some states have been more aggressive than others in creating majority-

Latino districts. Some states elect two or more legislators from the

same districts. This increased variance makes it easier to measure the

effects of demographic patterns, districting arrangements, and electoral

laws on the election of Latino candidates. Third, state legislatures often

provide the stepping-stones to Congress. Examining Latino represen-

tation in state legislatures offers a window on the future of Latinos in

Congress. Finally, state legislatures are themselves important. One

cannot understand domestic policymaking without appreciating the

role of state governments and state legislatures. At the state level, Latino

representation in the legislature largely reflects the percentage of

Latinos in the population. Additionally, some states have much higher

turnover rates in their legislatures, thus opening up more seats for Latino

candidates to win. Similarly, Latino candidates have better chances of

being elected in states that have enacted term limits, which eliminate

40

30

20

10

0

AK

AL

AR

AZ

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

IA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

LA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MN

MO

MS

MT

NC

ND

NH

NJ

NM

NV

NY

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UTVA

VT

WA

WI

W

V

WY

0 10203040

% Latino Population in State

% Latinos Serving in Legislature

FIGURE 1

Latino Representation in U.S. State Lower Houses, 2004